Recently, some people have been interpreting a rise in stablecoin supply as "off-chain funds are coming in," and combined with ETF data, they directly jump to causal chains... Frankly, just because the correlation looks good doesn't mean there's a switch. An increase in stablecoins could be due to minting, cross-chain activities, market-making reserves, or it could simply be that everyone wants to hold onto them for opportunities, with no actual buying pressure landing.

And then there are those large on-chain transfers, or when exchange hot and cold wallets move, being called "smart money" — I find that a bit funny... Sometimes it's just internal rebalancing, risk control address changes, or even just switching wallets for you to guess. Anyway, I now pay more attention to whether trading sentiment and fund flows can form a closed loop; if not, I just treat it as noise.

I'm not regretful about the outcome, but about rushing to craft stories when I saw a bunch of "signals" back then. That's it for now, less getting caught up.