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U.S.–Iran Nuclear Deal: Is a Agreement Possible by May 31?
The current situation shows that negotiations between the United States and Iran are at a critical turning point. Former President Donald Trump recently stated that a “peace agreement” between the two countries is essentially finalized and an official announcement may come soon. However, several key issues related to the nuclear program remain unresolved within the agreement framework.
Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, Field Marshal Asim Munir, recently visited Tehran, indicating progress in diplomatic discussions. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also confirmed that “some progress” has been made and that news may emerge soon. However, President Trump himself admitted that this remains a “fifty-fifty” situation, meaning the chances of a deal being reached or failing are equal.
Historical Background and Importance of the Conflict
This conflict escalated in February 2026 when the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran. The war has significantly shaken the global economy, particularly due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly one-fifth of global oil trade passes. The International Energy Agency has described it as one of the most severe energy crises to date.
Understanding the Strait of Hormuz is crucial. It connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and serves as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint. Any closure leads to extreme oil price spikes, pushing inflation in the United States to very high levels. This situation has forced the Federal Reserve to consider higher interest rates, which is generally negative for crypto markets.
Current Negotiation Details
Agreed Points: The primary focus of the agreement includes a formal end to hostilities and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, there is a possibility of easing certain sanctions on Iran. Pakistan-mediated talks reportedly suggest a 60-day ceasefire agreement during which further negotiations will continue.
Unresolved Issues: The future of Iran’s uranium enrichment program remains the biggest challenge. Iran has not confirmed whether it will give up its enriched uranium stockpile. U.S. Vice President JD Vance has stated that the U.S.
wants to ensure Iran never acquires nuclear weapons capability, but Iran appears unwilling to fully accept such conditions.
Polymarket Prediction Analysis
Prediction market data shows cautious optimism among traders.
A permanent peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran has an 81% probability of being reached by December 31, 2026.
However, the probability of a Israel–Iran peace agreement by May 31, 2026 is only 11%, indicating that regional complexities remain high.
Regarding uranium enrichment cessation, markets assign a 44% probability that Iran will abandon its enriched uranium stockpile by the end of 2026.
These figures suggest that while a ceasefire is possible, resolving the core nuclear issue will take significantly more time.
Impact on the Crypto Market
Positive Effects: If a deal is reached, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, oil prices would decline, and global economic stability would improve. This would be positive for crypto markets, as lower inflation could give the Federal Reserve room to reduce interest rates. Following Trump’s announcement, Bitcoin surged more than 4%, showing strong positive market reaction.
Negative Effects: During the conflict, Iran has used Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to bypass strict sanctions. If sanctions are lifted, Iran’s crypto-related demand may decrease, potentially putting short-term pressure on the market. However, in the long term, reduced regulatory risk would be beneficial for the crypto ecosystem.
Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment
Bitcoin has shown significant volatility in recent weeks. ETF inflows have declined, with approximately $1.3 billion outflows over 7 days. Stablecoin liquidity has weakened, and overall market sentiment is shifting rapidly.
However, easing geopolitical tensions could restore investor confidence and support a renewed upward trend. Ethereum is underperforming Bitcoin, indicating continued market caution. A decline in oil prices could benefit the energy sector, potentially redirecting capital into crypto markets.
Probability of a Deal by May 31
Supporting Factors:
Both sides are exhausted by prolonged conflict
High inflation pressure in the U.S. economy
Severe economic strain on Iran due to sanctions
Global powers including China and Russia favor de-escalation
Regional allies like Saudi Arabia and UAE support stability
Obstacles:
Israel opposes the agreement, viewing it as a security risk
Hardliners within Iran resist compromise
Uranium enrichment remains a highly complex issue
Trump’s “fifty-fifty” statement reflects deep uncertainty
Final Analysis and Forecast
There is an estimated 60% probability that a partial agreement between the United States and Iran could be reached by May 31, 2026. However, this would likely not be a full nuclear deal but rather a framework agreement including:
A 60-day ceasefire
Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Commitment to continued nuclear negotiations
Such an agreement would be positive for crypto markets as it would reduce geopolitical tensions and restore investor confidence. However, a full nuclear resolution may still take months or even years. The market should remain cautious, as tensions between Israel and Iran remain unresolved and any misunderstanding could jeopardize progress.
Investment Recommendations
In the short term, markets are expected to remain volatile. If a deal is reached, Bitcoin could potentially break above $80,000. However, if negotiations fail, prices could fall toward $70,000.
Investors should avoid excessive risk until a clear trend emerges. Crypto projects linked to Iran should be approached cautiously, as easing sanctions could reduce their demand. Oil-linked crypto assets should also be monitored, as stabilization of the Strait of Hormuz could negatively impact them.
A partial agreement between the U.S. and Iran by May 31 appears possible, likely involving a ceasefire, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a roadmap for future negotiations. However, a full nuclear agreement remains distant. Crypto investors must navigate this environment carefully, balancing opportunity with risk while staying alert to rapid geopolitical developments.
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