I recently noticed that gold is experiencing very notable movement this year. 2026 started strongly, with the precious metal rising rapidly and touching historic levels near $5,600 per ounce in January, surpassing the expectations of many major financial institutions. But the story didn’t continue at the same pace, as gold entered a clear correction wave in March, then began moving around the range of $4,700-$4,800 in April.

The question many are asking now: Will the gold price drop more than this? Or are we facing a temporary bottom before a new upward wave?

In fact, what happened in March was painful for investors. Gold experienced its worst month since October 2008, with a loss of about 11.8% in that month alone. This decline was caused by changing interest rate expectations, dollar strength, and rising bond yields. But despite all this, gold has not lost the fundamental drivers that support it.

Central banks are still buying, demand for safe havens has not disappeared, and global economic uncertainty remains. A Reuters survey of 30 analysts showed that the average forecast for gold in 2026 reached $4,746.50 per ounce, the highest annual average since 2012.

When I look at the influencing factors, I see a complex picture. Inflation rose to 3.3% in March after being 2.4% in February, meaning price pressures are re-emerging. On the other hand, the US dollar is strong, putting pressure on gold. But at the same time, geopolitical tensions are increasing, and investors are seeking safe havens.

Major financial institutions have varied but generally optimistic forecasts. JPMorgan expects gold to reach $6,300 by the end of the year. UBS raised its target to $6,200, with a bullish scenario reaching up to $7,200 if geopolitical crises worsen. Deutsche Bank forecasts $6,000, and Goldman Sachs set a target around $5,400.

Honestly, this diversity in forecasts reflects the real uncertainty in the market. Gold has become more sensitive than before, reacting quickly to any change in US interest rates, the dollar, or global risks.

If you’re thinking of entering now, there are important points. First, understand why you are buying gold. Is it to preserve your savings from inflation? Or to diversify your portfolio? Or to hedge against crises? Each goal has a different strategy.

Second, don’t leave your money at the mercy of inflation in savings accounts. Gold has proven over time that it preserves purchasing power better. In 2021 and 2022, when global inflation rose, gold was the primary hedge, reaching about $1,900.

Third, if you’re looking for short-term speculation, you can use CFDs or futures contracts. But this requires daily monitoring and technical analysis. If you’re a long-term investor, gold bars, coins, or exchange-traded funds are safer options.

Regarding your question: Will the gold price drop? The answer: It may fall slightly at certain times, but the fundamental drivers indicate that the overall trend is upward in the medium term. There are no guarantees in the market, but the fundamentals support gold.

The important thing is to have a clear plan before you start. Monitor your portfolio, stay disciplined, and don’t let daily fluctuations lead you to emotional decisions. Gold is a safe haven, but success depends on a logical strategy, not just predictions.