I've noticed that gold has been moving within a very narrow range these days, around $4,789 per ounce on the two-hour chart. The price is stuck between $4,750 and $4,800, which is a typical pattern before a real breakout in either direction.

Geopolitical factors are playing a very significant role right now. Washington and Tehran negotiations are coming at the end of the week according to Trump's statements, and the market is in a cautious wait-and-see mode. If positive news emerges, it could temporarily pressure gold, but if negotiations fail, the rally could quickly resume.

From a technical perspective, the MACD indicator is moving sideways and momentum is declining, while the RSI is close to 55 (completely neutral). This means the market is waiting for a real catalyst. If the price breaks above $4,800 with a strong close, I expect a surge toward $5,000. Conversely, if it breaks below $4,750, we might first drop to $4,650 before resuming the upward trend.

The negative side: actual demand from Asia is very weak, especially from India and China. Indian banks have suspended gold imports, and large quantities are stuck at customs. This puts downward pressure on prices despite geopolitical support. Oil prices have also fallen, reducing inflation fears.

Institutional forecasts indicate a $6,200 target in the medium term according to UBS, but in the short term, movement will be sideways. Everything depends on the negotiation results and decisions regarding US interest rates. Gold price forecasts for the coming weeks will mainly depend on these two factors.