I have recently noticed that aluminum has started to attract serious attention from traders. This industrial metal is no longer just a marginal commodity – it now reflects the reality of the global economy and the demand for infrastructure and clean energy.

What happened in 2026 was truly powerful. Aluminum broke through levels we haven't seen since March 2022, approaching $3,700 per ton with annual gains exceeding 45%. This is not normal performance – the market has begun to reevaluate this metal fundamentally.

The real question now: can it sustain this momentum until 2030? There are strong structural factors supporting it. Electric vehicles and renewable energy require massive amounts of aluminum. New electrical grids and infrastructure as well. The International Aluminum Institute expects demand to increase by about 40% by 2030.

But there are also pressures. Inventories are very low – they fell to 344,000 tons in May 2026. If this tightness continues, prices may remain supported. But if production in China or Indonesia accelerates, the scene could change.

Regarding forecasts, the World Bank expects an average of $3,200 per ton in 2026, Citi sees $3,600, and Goldman Sachs is less optimistic at $2,720 by the end of 2026. For the coming years, the picture is less clear but the overall trend remains positive.

Technically, the critical zone now is $3,750–$3,800. If aluminum breaks through these levels and stays above on the monthly chart, we could see a new upward wave toward $4,000. But if it fails, it may stay in a wide range between $3,000 and $3,800 for a longer period.

The real support is at $3,000–$3,200. Breaking this level could mean a deeper correction toward $2,700–$2,900. But so far, the market is holding support.

Factors to watch: China's industrial data, energy and electricity prices, dollar strength, and inventories. Any negative news from China could immediately pressure the price. But long-term demand from clean energy remains the main story.

Personally, I monitor this metal as an indicator of the health of the global economy and real industrial demand. If you're interested in gaining exposure to this price movement, there are multiple options – from trading futures to aluminum company stocks or even specialized industrial metal funds. Each option has its risks and advantages depending on your time horizon and risk tolerance.

Summary: Aluminum looks promising until 2030, but it will remain sensitive to news and economic cycles. Upside is possible, but not guaranteed. Caution and close monitoring are key.