I’ve just noticed an interesting point about the changes in the Japanese yen over the past few years. If you closely follow the market, you will see that the yen has been steadily depreciating since early 2021 compared to the Thai baht. Over the past ten years, the JPY/THB exchange rate has fallen by more than 30%, which is a fairly significant change.

There are many factors behind the yen’s depreciation. First is the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, which continues to maintain an accommodative policy. Meanwhile, other central banks such as the Fed and the ECB have started raising interest rates to deal with inflation. This difference in interest-rate policy reduces demand for the yen.

In addition, Japan remains the 4th–5th largest economy in the world, with a GDP of approximately $4.19 trillion. The yen continues to be a major currency used in international trade, and it is considered a safe-haven asset that investors worldwide pay attention to. However, Japan’s economic conditions and policies differ from those of other major powers, making it quite difficult to analyze the yen’s trend.

Looking back to 2025, I can see some signs of recovery—especially after the Bank of Japan began reducing its monthly bond purchases from 9 trillion yen to 7.5 trillion yen. The yen against the baht strengthened from 0.2130 to 0.2176, a rebound from a long-term support level. However, the Thai baht also received support from a rebound in tourism and inflows of foreign capital, which has kept the yen under pressure.

Now in 2026, the situation is quite interesting. Looking at the long-term chart, the JPY/THB exchange rate has been in a continuous downtrend since 2012. The yen is trading in the range of 0.2150–0.2250, which signals a potential recovery around prior support levels. If this support holds, the yen could gradually strengthen to around 0.2300–0.2400 in 2026.

There are several factors to watch for this year’s yen outlook. First, the interest-rate differential between countries. As global inflation stabilizes, major central banks may adopt more neutral easing measures. If the Fed cuts interest rates while Japan gradually tightens policy, this divergence could support yen appreciation.

Second, movements in Japan’s monetary policy are extremely important. The Bank of Japan has signaled the possibility of exiting its aggressive easing stance. Ending negative interest rates or adjusting YCC could help support the yen, but timing remains a key factor.

Third, the repatriation of capital and geopolitical tensions. Japanese institutional investors may move funds back home amid uncertainty in emerging markets. Increased capital repatriation often supports the yen. In addition, geopolitical conflicts in Asia could increase demand for the yen as a regional safe-haven asset.

From an analysis of technical indicators on short timeframes, there are 7 indicators signaling a sell, 1 signaling a buy, and 5 indicating neutral. The moving averages are distributed evenly, suggesting there is no clear directional trend. However, downward pressure remains evident, so traders should exercise caution. Although the current trend is bearish, long-term support levels could indicate a potential reversal.

In summary, the yen’s outlook is something investors in the global market cannot afford to overlook, because it is a major currency closely connected to many other assets—especially the dollar, bond yields, and the overall Japanese stock market. 2026 could be a pivotal year for a major transition in the yen, depending on the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy and other macroeconomic factors.