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Polymarket’s Trending Prediction: Where Could NVIDIA Stock Land in May 2026?

Polymarket traders are actively betting on NVIDIA’s May closing price, with contract volume surpassing $510K, showing strong market interest.

Current NVDA price: $220.66

Prediction distribution:

📈 Bullish targets
• $240 — 30% probability
• $248 — 20%
• $256 — 7%
• $264 — 5%

📉 Bearish scenarios
• $192 — 16%
• $184 — 8%
• $176 — 6%
• Below $160 — only 1%

The odds show traders are more divided on upside potential than downside risk.

So what’s driving sentiment?

NVIDIA’s latest quarterly earnings crushed expectations.

• Revenue hit $82B, up 85% YoY
• GAAP net profit surged 211% YoY
• Gross margin reached 74.9%

The company also restructured operations into two segments: Data Center & Edge Computing, signaling a shift toward viewing NVIDIA as a complete AI infrastructure provider, not just a GPU seller.

Data Center remains the growth engine:

• $75.2B revenue
• 92% YoY growth
• Networking revenue exploded nearly 199%, highlighting massive AI cluster expansion.

Forward guidance added more fuel:

NVIDIA projects $91B Q2 revenue and plans to begin Vera Rubin chip shipments later this year.

CEO Jensen Huang believes Vera Rubin could outperform Blackwell, while management maintains confidence in a potential $1T combined Blackwell + Rubin revenue opportunity.

Demand signals remain strong:

• Hyperscalers account for ~50% of Data Center sales
• Sovereign AI revenue grew 80%+ YoY
• AI infrastructure now spans 40+ countries

Meanwhile, NVIDIA announced:

💰 $80B additional buyback authorization
💵 Quarterly dividend raised from $0.01 to $0.25/share

This strengthens the market view that management remains highly confident in long-term cash flow generation.

Comparing fundamentals with Polymarket pricing, the market’s base case appears moderately bullish, with $240 emerging as the strongest consensus zone, while extreme bearish outcomes still lack support.

Still, prediction markets reflect sentiment and disagreement, not guaranteed future prices.

Will NVIDIA push toward $240+, or does the market need another catalyst after earnings?