The RWA market may reach $30 trillion by 2034. What does Hong Kong's first stablecoin license mean?

Standard Chartered Bank and Synpulse jointly released a report indicating that by 2034, the overall demand for tokenized real-world assets could reach $30.1 trillion. This figure is not derived out of thin air but is based on a comprehensive assessment of global trade volume, existing financing gaps, and asset tokenization penetration rates.

From the current baseline, the tokenized RWA market had reached approximately $29.27 billion by April 2026, nearly 20 times the approximately $1.5 billion in 2023. Among these, tokenized U.S. Treasuries grew from $380 million in Q1 2023 to $13.4 billion in April 2026, a 37-fold increase; private credit, with a scale of about $14 billion, surpassed Treasuries to become the largest segment among non-stablecoin RWAs.



Standard Chartered’s forecast is based on the $500 trillion of traditional financial assets globally. By 2034, tokenized assets are expected to account for about 6% of this, a penetration rate considered reasonable within a long-term structural transformation framework. In comparison, other institutions’ forecasts are also valuable references—Ripple and Boston Consulting Group project the tokenization market to reach approximately $18.9 trillion by 2033, while Redstone’s Q1 2026 report set an industry annual growth rate of 85%, with actual data in May already surpassing this level.

Why is trade finance a key scenario for tokenization? Currently, about 20% of global export markets lack financing support, with a trade finance gap of approximately $2.5 trillion, which could approach $5 trillion under broader statistical definitions. Standard Chartered estimates that trade finance assets will constitute 16% of the total tokenized market, roughly $4.8 trillion, ranking among the top three global categories of tokenized assets.

This judgment is based on the risk-return characteristics of trade finance assets: extremely low default rates (usually below 1%), recoveries of 66% to nearly 100% under collateralized conditions, relatively short cycles, and persistent financing demand. Unlike traditional financial assets heavily influenced by macro market fluctuations, trade assets can maintain stable investment opportunities even during economic slowdowns—ongoing financing needs of small and medium-sized enterprises form a resilient fundamental base that is less affected by cyclical downturns.

## Hong Kong’s “Stablecoin Regulations”: How Will the Regulatory Framework Impact the Tokenization Process?

On April 10, 2026, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) granted the first stablecoin issuer licenses to two institutions under the “Stablecoin Regulations” (Chapter 656), marking the first comprehensive regulatory regime for fiat-backed stablecoins in the Asia-Pacific region moving from legislation to practical implementation.

Out of 36 applicants, only two were approved, with an approval rate of about 5%. The licensed institutions are HSBC and a joint venture called Gopay Financial Technologies Limited, formed by Standard Chartered (Hong Kong), Hong Kong Telecom, and Animoca Brands. This strict approval outcome reflects Hong Kong’s cautious regulatory stance—HKMA Chief Executive Eddie Yue repeatedly emphasized that “the number of licenses issued initially will be limited and cautious,” with approval criteria including the applicant’s risk management capabilities, compliance record, and specific business plans.

From a regulatory design perspective, the “Stablecoin Regulations” adopt a “value-pegged supervision” principle: regardless of where the stablecoin is issued, as long as it claims to be pegged to the Hong Kong dollar or RMB, it must be regulated by Hong Kong authorities. This effectively curtails regulatory arbitrage at the legal level. Specific compliance requirements include a minimum paid-up capital of HKD 25 million or a circulation face value of 1% (whichever is higher), maintaining 100% full reserve backing, and custody by a licensed bank or recognized custodian under an independent trust structure.

Both licensees plan to initially issue HKD-pegged stablecoins covering three major scenarios: cross-border payments, local payments, and tokenized asset transactions. HSBC plans to launch its HKD stablecoin in the second half of 2026, enabling seamless integration with PayMe and HSBC Hong Kong’s mobile banking app; Gopay Financial expects to roll out its HKD stablecoin in phases starting in Q2 2026, focusing on improving RWA settlement efficiency and exploring cross-border payment solutions.

Stablecoins play a central role as settlement tools within the tokenization ecosystem. The real-time requirements of tokenized asset trading align naturally with stablecoins’ on-chain settlement capabilities—regulated stablecoins can serve as a “highway” for tokenized asset transactions, providing a trustworthy pricing unit and settlement medium for real-time on-chain delivery. The implementation of Hong Kong’s regulatory framework removes legal uncertainties, facilitating large-scale compliant stablecoin applications in RWA trading.

## Diverging Global Regulatory Landscapes for Tokenized Assets: What Institutional Pathways Are Different Jurisdictions Offering?

By 2026, the regulatory landscape for tokenized assets exhibits clear multi-polarization. The US, EU, UAE—Singapore corridor each controls different parts of the global ecosystem, with no single jurisdiction dominating entirely.

The EU has established the world’s first comprehensive legislative framework covering stablecoins through the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), which fully took effect in December 2024, emphasizing a structured, compliance-first approach. In the US, the Senate passed the “GENIUS Act” in June 2025, formally bringing stablecoin legislation onto the congressional agenda.

In the RWA tokenization domain, the UAE–Singapore corridor is becoming a rapidly growing hub. Singapore’s Monetary Authority-led Project Guardian is one of the most prominent industry collaboration projects in the tokenization space, with Standard Chartered successfully simulating the issuance of $500 million asset-backed securities (ABS) on Ethereum backed by trade finance assets.

Dubai’s Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority (VARA) offers a more differentiated regulatory approach. Instead of forcing RWAs into traditional securities law frameworks, VARA classifies them as “virtual assets” for independent regulation. This allows RWA projects to obtain VARA licenses and legally conduct public offerings to retail investors and list on compliant exchanges. VARA’s compliance standards (such as AML, technical standards, custody risk controls) are as rigorous as those in Hong Kong and Singapore, but its core advantage lies in providing a dedicated, implementable regulatory structure designed specifically for RWAs, supporting public offerings and global circulation.

Notably, jurisdictions like the US, Singapore, and Hong Kong generally adopt a “piercing” regulatory approach, treating RWAs as securities or capital market products—this ensures investor protection but often limits trading to professional investors, creating liquidity fragmentation. Dubai’s practice offers an alternative: in the future, the core competitiveness in RWA competition may shift from technological implementation to legal structuring and cross-sovereign regulatory coordination.

## From BUIDL to B2B2C: How Are Institutions Validating the Market Logic of Tokenized Assets?

Institutional capital entry is the most direct validation signal for the tokenized asset track. By April 2026, the market size of tokenized RWAs had surged from about $1.5 billion in 2023 to $301k, nearly 20 times in three years.

BlackRock is one of the most active institutional players in this space. In 2024, BlackRock launched its first tokenized money market fund, BUIDL, in partnership with Securitize. By May 2026, its assets had accumulated to about $2.3 billion and are widely cited as a representative case of institutional adoption of tokenized finance. In February 2026, BUIDL was further integrated into the UniswapX trading framework, enabling BUIDL holders to perform atomic on-chain exchanges of fund shares with stablecoins like USDC via a quote request system. BlackRock’s Global Head of Digital Assets, Robert Mitchnick, noted that this integration marked a significant leap in interoperability between tokenized USD yield funds and stablecoins. In May 2026, BlackRock submitted a new tokenized fund structure application to the SEC, continuing its partnership with Securitize since 2024, integrating on-chain records of fund shareholder rights with a regulated transfer agent system, aligning on-chain operations with traditional financial compliance.

On the traditional finance side, HSBC had already launched blockchain settlement services in Hong Kong in May 2025, deploying tokenized deposit infrastructure commercially. This move effectively extends the offline credit base onto the on-chain ecosystem. Gopay Financial has built a “bank + tech + Web3” collaborative model, integrating Standard Chartered’s compliance and risk management, Hong Kong Telecom’s local payment network, and Animoca Brands’ native digital asset expertise within a single entity.

BlackRock’s continued investment, along with strategic bets by HSBC and Standard Chartered on stablecoin licenses, points to a longer-term trend: tokenized assets are moving from frontier exploration into institutional-grade infrastructure development. The global tokenized RWA market has already exceeded $30 billion, shifting from early experimentation toward building institutional infrastructure, interoperability, and compliant on-chain financial systems.

## What Structural Challenges Does Mainstream Adoption of Tokenized Assets Still Face?

The $30 trillion forecast is based on the logic of long-term structural transformation, but the path to this goal is not smooth or linear. Several challenges require ongoing attention.

First, legal and regulatory uncertainties. While jurisdictions like Hong Kong, Singapore, and the UAE have made institutional breakthroughs, the global regulatory landscape remains fragmented. A single RWA project aiming to serve investors across multiple jurisdictions often needs to meet diverse compliance requirements, significantly increasing legal complexity and costs. Most jurisdictions regulate RWAs as securities, with strict liquidity arrangements at the exchange level—this conflicts with the core value proposition of tokenization, which is to enhance liquidity and accessibility.

Second, infrastructure development is still immature. Issues such as custody standards for tokenized assets, cross-chain interoperability, and on-chain identity verification are still evolving. Institutional capital demands high stability, security, and regulatory certainty from infrastructure solutions, which are not yet fully met.

Third, supply-side scaling bottlenecks. Standard Chartered notes that the current supply of tokenized assets mainly comprises traditional assets like U.S. Treasuries and money market funds, with a total value of about $5 billion in early 2024 (excluding stablecoins). While trade finance assets have ideal underlying qualities, their development is hindered by low market familiarity, inconsistent pricing, and operational complexity, resulting in underinvestment.

Additionally, cultivating demand will also take time. Institutional investors still need more real-world cases to validate risk pricing models, legal recourse mechanisms, and liquidity exit channels for tokenized assets. The current market size of approximately $29.27 billion is a huge gap from the long-term goal of $30 trillion—whether the investment logic can reliably cross from billions to trillions depends on the certainty and sustained momentum of this transition.

## Summary

Standard Chartered’s forecast of a $30 trillion tokenized asset market by 2034 is based on a comprehensive judgment of global trade finance gaps, RWA penetration, and ongoing institutional capital inflows. The current market size of about $29.27B and the 20-fold growth over three years, along with strategic deployments by leading institutions like BlackRock, HSBC, and Standard Chartered, provide early, verifiable signals supporting the long-term narrative.

The landing of the first stablecoin licenses under Hong Kong’s “Stablecoin Regulations” removes key legal barriers for large-scale compliant stablecoin applications in RWA trading. Against the backdrop of diverging but advancing global regulatory landscapes, mainstreaming tokenized assets will require continuous improvement of regulatory frameworks and ongoing maturation of infrastructure.

## FAQ

Q1: What is the basis for Standard Chartered’s prediction of a $30 trillion tokenized asset market?

The forecast is based on approximately 6% penetration of $500 trillion of global traditional financial assets, driven by the trade finance gap (~$2.5 trillion), combined with an expected global trade volume reaching $32.6 trillion by 2030. The report also highlights that trade finance assets, characterized by low default rates, short cycles, and persistent demand, are ideal underlying assets for tokenization, projected to account for 16% of the total market.

Q2: What are the core regulatory requirements of Hong Kong’s “Stablecoin Regulations”?

The regulations establish a mandatory licensing regime, requiring fiat-backed stablecoin issuers to meet a minimum paid-up capital of HKD 25 million or a circulation face value of 1% (whichever is higher), maintain 100% full reserve backing, and custody reserves in highly liquid assets like short-term government bonds or core bank deposits, held by an independent trustee. Stablecoin holders have enforceable unconditional redemption rights.

Q3: What are the main regulatory obstacles faced by RWA projects?

Jurisdictions like the US, Singapore, and Hong Kong generally regulate RWAs as securities, limiting their public offering to professional investors and restricting liquidity, which conflicts with the core value of tokenization. Dubai’s VARA offers an alternative by classifying RWAs as “virtual assets” for independent regulation, allowing public offerings to retail investors and trading on compliant exchanges.

Q4: How are institutions progressing in the tokenized asset space?

BlackRock’s BUIDL fund has reached about $2.3 billion in assets, integrated into UniswapX for on-chain trading, and submitted new fund structure applications to the SEC. HSBC and Standard Chartered obtained Hong Kong’s first stablecoin issuer licenses in 2026, planning to launch HKD stablecoins for cross-border and local payments, and tokenized asset transactions.

Q5: What is the current actual market size of tokenized assets?

As of April 2026, the total on-chain tokenized RWA market is approximately $29.27 billion, up nearly 20 times from 2023. Tokenized U.S. Treasuries are about $13.4 billion, private credit around $14 billion. The overall tokenized RWA market exceeds $30 billion, transitioning from early experiments to institutional infrastructure development.