After the plunge, a rational review of the three core indicators for "bottom fishing"

The correction on May 18th made many investors who had just rekindled hope feel uneasy. BTC fell below $77k, ETH lost the $2,200 level, and 150k traders were liquidated across the network, with data alarming. But every decline is accompanied by a soul-searching question: "Is this the time to bottom fish or to escape?" I believe that instead of impulsively entering based on feelings, it's better to calmly observe three core indicators.
First, on-chain activity and whale address movements. The true bottom often involves stable accumulation by long-term holders, not panic selling. We can observe whether the number of addresses holding 100+ BTC has increased or decreased over the past 24 hours. If whales are buying against the trend, then this round of "artificial cleansing" during the decline suggests a stronger possibility of manipulation.
Second, the return of funding rates to neutral. Before the decline, market sentiment was overly optimistic, with funding rates staying positive and high for a long time. After this round of liquidation of 150k traders, leverage has been significantly cleared, and funding rates have returned to near zero or even negative levels. This is one of the signs of a healthy correction—shedding burdens and lightening the load to potentially start a new trend.
Third, the test results of key support levels. $77k is an important psychological threshold for BTC in the past two months. Whether it can recover and stabilize above $78k within the next 48 hours will determine if the short-term movement is a rebound or a continued search for the bottom. If it repeatedly tests but does not break below $75k, the probability of forming a medium-term bottom will greatly increase.
Regarding geopolitical risks, news of the US and Iran possibly restarting military actions will indeed suppress risk asset appetite. But the performance of the crypto market over the past two years shows that initial geopolitical conflicts often lead to short-term declines, followed by Bitcoin being viewed by some funds as "digital gold" and gaining safe-haven buying. The real risk is not the conflict itself, but the liquidity tightening expectations triggered by the conflict.
My trading approach: do not rush into "all-in" bets. Place staggered buy orders for BTC in the $75k–$77k range, adding to positions every time it drops by 3%, with total position control within 30% of total funds. Also, pay attention to resilient projects in the DeFi and SocialFi sectors, which can stand firm against the trend, indicating independent narrative logic. If the market stabilizes later, these sectors may lead the rebound. Remember, bottom fishing is about trial and error, not gambling.
#加密市場下跌15萬人爆倉
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