May 18th $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

News:
Over the weekend, Bitcoin lacked significant positive catalysts, and market focus was on macro factors and geopolitical risks:
Recently, there has been a notable outflow from the US spot Bitcoin ETF (such as a $635 million outflow on May 13th, the largest this year), indicating profit-taking by institutions or increased risk aversion.

High US inflation data (CPI/PPI), uncertainty about the new Federal Reserve Chair, and rising bond yields limit the upside of risk assets. The stock market hit new highs, but Bitcoin did not follow, showing capital rotation and diversion.

Tensions related to Iran (Strait of Hormuz) temporarily affected oil prices and risk sentiment, but weekend trading volume was low, amplifying volatility. Overall news lacks strong driving forces, leaning towards a wait-and-see approach.

Funding:
In the long term, total ETF holdings have reached about 1.3 million BTC, with institutions (like JPMorgan) increasing ETF positions, but there has been a short-term net outflow (several hundred million dollars in the past week). This indicates demand exists but sentiment is volatile.

Exchange reserves continue to decline (approaching multi-year lows), whales are accumulating at low levels (adding about 270k BTC from April to May), and the MVRV Z-Score is close to 1. Tight supply-side conditions provide support, but increased leverage liquidations add short-term volatility.

Technical:
On the daily chart, watch for support at the MACD zero line; it has not yet adjusted properly.
The 4-hour and 6-hour levels require special attention; there are no signs of a bottom yet, and this position may just be a consolidation during a downtrend.
In summary, this level has not yet seen a correction, and no bottom signals appear on either large or small timeframes. Currently, it’s important to remain cautious of associated risks. Support levels are at 75,800 to 73,600. Those looking to go long or buy spot can wait patiently.