Daily Learning 👀 — Bitcoin - MVRV Z-Score 🤌

The MVRV Z-Score is a classic on-chain valuation indicator for Bitcoin, used to measure the deviation of the current market price from the actual cost basis of holders, and through statistical normalization, to identify extreme overbought or oversold regions.

The green line (MVRV Score) spikes significantly at the peaks of previous bull markets (such as 2013, 2017, 2021) (often >5-10), followed by sharp price corrections.

The yellow line (BTC price) is highly correlated with the green line, especially in the late stages of a bull market when the green line surges, and the price also peaks.

During bear market bottoms, the green line often drops below zero or even negative, indicating an undervalued zone.

💰 Reference value for Bitcoin investment:
① Identifying bull market tops (sell/trim signals):
When the Z-Score > 5~7 (or even higher), historically it consistently corresponds to extreme overvaluation in the market, often marking the top of a bull cycle (such as late 2017, late 2021).

At this point, speculative sentiment is overheated, and profit-taking risks are high. Many long-term holders gradually realize profits in this region.

② Identifying bear market bottoms (buy/accumulation signals):
When the Z-Score < 0 (or even lower), it indicates that the current price is far below most holders' cost basis, representing a severely undervalued zone.

Historically, this has been an excellent long-term buying opportunity (such as at the bottoms of 2015, 2019, 2022), often leading to a new bull run afterward.

③ Judging the current cycle position (neutral/fair value zone):
Around 0~3 is usually considered "fair value" or mid-cycle in a bull market, neither extremely overvalued nor undervalued, suitable for holding or operating based on other indicators.

Currently (around May 2026), based on public data, the Z-Score is around 0.9~1 (BTC price about $80k), in a relatively neutral/slightly overvalued state but far from the previous cycle's top levels, indicating the cycle has not yet entered the final euphoria phase.

🤔 In summary, the MVRV Z-Score is one of Bitcoin’s “thermometers”—when high, beware of bubbles; when low, consider dollar-cost averaging. The current chart shows it remains in a relatively moderate position historically. For medium- to long-term Bitcoin investors, there is still a reasonable safety margin, but continuous monitoring for rapid surges into high-risk zones is necessary. #Gate广场五月交易分享