This week's gold market experienced a "Black Friday" — spot gold plunged by $112 intraday, with the latest quote at 4538.45, down 2.43%. Domestic gold prices also retreated to 997.3, once again falling below the 1,000 yuan mark.

Core reason: Multiple negative factors triggered a concentrated sell-off

1. Hawkish Federal Reserve surprise: personnel changes sparked a rapid cooling of rate cut expectations, and market concerns over policy tightening intensified;

2. Double impact of a strong dollar and U.S. Treasury yields: the dollar index surged past 99, U.S. Treasury yields rose simultaneously, significantly increasing the cost of holding gold;

3. India’s tax hike + profit-taking: India raised import tariffs on gold and silver, weakening physical demand; earlier long positions were mainly closed out for profit, combined with futures short positions increasing and retail panic selling, amplifying selling pressure.

Notably: The world’s largest gold ETF holdings remain stable at 1,039 tons, increasing for five consecutive days. Large funds are contrarian positioning, and long-term confidence remains unshaken.

Technical key points

Currently, gold prices are testing the 4,500 support level. If it fails, a downward channel may open, with the next target at the previous low of 4,360. Short-term bearish sentiment dominates, with clear divergence between bulls and bears.

Watch closely: gains or losses around 4,500, Federal Reserve policy direction, and dollar trends.

Personal opinion, not investment advice. The market carries risks, and decisions should be made cautiously.