Daily Learning 👁 — Put-Call Ratio

It is a classic on-chain indicator of $BTC , mainly used to assess the market cycle position from the perspective of miner profitability.

1. Indicator definition and calculation method
Put-Call Ratio = Daily Bitcoin issuance value ÷ 365-day moving average of daily issuance value

- Daily issuance value: The BTC mined that day (block reward + some transaction fees) multiplied by the current BTC price, representing miners' main income for the day.
- 365-day moving average: Represents the average income level of miners over the past year.

Simply put, this indicator measures how many times current miner income exceeds the long-term average. It essentially reflects miners' “profit pressure” or “selling pressure”:

- High value → Miners are making huge profits (often during bullish exuberance)
- Low value → Miners are suffering significant losses (often at bear market bottoms, miners are forced to sell)

As shown in the chart, before and after each halving and during bull-bear transitions, the Put-Call Ratio exhibits obvious fluctuations, closely matching BTC price cycles.

2. Its reference value for Bitcoin investment (suitable for medium- to long-term investors):

- Judging buying opportunities (low zone)
When the Put-Call Ratio drops below 0.6 (green area), miners are generally losing money, and selling pressure may be nearing the end. Historically, this often corresponds to major bottoms (such as at the end of 2015, 2018, 2022).
This is often a golden window for long-term dollar-cost averaging or phased bottom-fishing. Some analysts call the 0.6–0.8 range the “decision zone,” and breaking below 0.6 warrants even more attention.

- Judging selling/reduction opportunities (high zone)
When the Put-Call Ratio rises above 2 (or even 4+, pink area), miners’ income far exceeds the average, and the market is in extreme euphoria. Miners’ selling pressure is high, often corresponding to market tops or late-stage bull markets.
At this point, consider taking profits or reducing positions to avoid chasing highs.

- Overall investment advantage ✊
- Strong objectivity: purely data-driven, unaffected by emotions, focusing only on miners’ real income.
- Cycle sensitivity: good at capturing halving cycles and bull-bear switches, one of the few indicators that can anticipate “miner capitulation.”
- Complementary to price: price reflects “demand side,” Put-Call Ratio reflects “supply side,” combining both improves accuracy.
- High historical success rate: over the past decade, it has accurately identified major bottoms and tops multiple times (not 100% precise, but very reliable as an auxiliary indicator).

🤔 The Put-Call Ratio is a highly cost-effective on-chain tool in Bitcoin investing, especially suitable for investors who want to catch the “cycle bottom” without frequent trading. It helps you see whether the market is “expensive” or “cheap” from the perspective of miner “forced selling.” Using the pink/green areas in the chart as rough references, combined with your risk appetite and position management, can be very effective.