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What you need to know to understand what will happen to cryptocurrencies for most of 2026

Trump hinted that a heavy attack on Iran could soon begin, and the excitement surrounding CLARITY was short-lived. Bitcoin is struggling to hold onto $79,000.

With ETF outflows approaching $800 million, Coinbase Premium is negative, reflecting the appetite of US spot investors. This combination suggests further declines are possible.

The reality of sticky inflation and realistic Fed interest rate policy projections do not bode well for cryptocurrencies in 2026.

In fact, it could be said that this applies throughout your trading life, because if you can understand today, what today looks like, you can understand every day. Today, Bitcoin experienced a drop, and for experienced investors, this is not surprising at all. On the contrary, it was the expected scenario. So, what data and information tell us about today?

What was crypto, what is it, and what will it be?

Big things will constantly happen, and you will never see the agenda completely calm. Especially after the tariff saga that began last year, it was clear that many things would change on a global scale. And they did. There will be more, and what we call the normalization of the abnormal since the pandemic will become much more normal.

Looking at the current situation, it's possible to explain our situation with a few points.

Geopolitical risks are significant, and after Maduro's escape from his country, Trump suddenly feels he has the power to do the same for Cuba or other states. And he can. After claiming rights over Greenland and even defying the EU, it's very difficult to set limits on what the US administration can do. And today's topic is Iran. Regarding Iran, a short-term agreement is not foreseen, and when the demands and responses are weighed on the scales, there seems to be no solution other than a devastating war.
The US is now unpredictable. This is one of the things we call the normalization of the abnormal. That's precisely why an asset like Bitcoin, which tends to be "risk-sensitive and risk-focused," cannot be expected to perform stably. So what will happen? Volatility will continue strongly.

Global inflation is on an irreversible path with the rise in oil prices. With the US now returning to 2022 levels in many metrics, data suggests we can expect interest rate hikes. Moreover, the damage to oil facilities indicates that production will not return to normal for several quarters. The rise in core inflation shows that sticky inflation is growing again, so the story of growth in risk markets through monetary easing seems to be over.

In the early days of Bitcoin, Nakamoto had ideals, goals, and dreams. Today, as Bitcoin has grown, it has become uglier and a "new asset that prices risk" in the hands of institutions. Now, Ethereum nodes are "secure" places under strict oversight and law enforcement. Bitcoin wallets are not so anonymous anymore, thanks to advanced OSINT tools and the strong information-sharing principles of exchanges. It seems that cryptocurrency will likely remain nothing more than a second version of "digital, internet banking," the evolution of traditional banking over the last 10-15 years. All transactions, from banks to exchanges and from exchanges to cold wallets, will, with the support of artificial intelligence, resemble traditional banking in the future, albeit in terms of oversight and regulation.
2017 was the year those with big stories sold their stories. 2021 was the year investors were convinced that big stories were starting to become reality. 2024-2025 were the years when big stories weren't as ambitious as they were portrayed, but they became reality with giants like BlackRock and infrastructure integrations provided to large financial companies. The period after this will be the era where blockchain-based digital finance grows on the backs of many public crypto networks. Traditional finance isn't bothered by this because crypto has already largely begun to resemble them, so there's no problem. Therefore, today we are in a time when projects with "ambitious stories" and "spectacular demos" are not attracting attention. This is why altcoins couldn't get the lifeline they needed in the last cycle, and therefore couldn't write the desired "altcoin season" story. From now on, it doesn't seem very credible to expect projects to recapture their former glory, except for a limited number.

Perhaps experienced investors, aware of this change over the years, have started withdrawing from altcoins early. While many ghost projects await their demise, some altcoins, capable of attracting a significant portion of shallow liquidity and generating excitement, offer artificial happiness reminiscent of oases in the desert.
May 15th BTC Crash

Disregarding all the big words and long-term predictions from the first part, BTC's final share fell due to selling by US investors. While we see a temporary FOMO stemming from Coinbase Premium and Clarity, it was logical and didn't last long. ETF outflows exceeded $800 million on the second day this week. So, we're talking about a drop that occurred visibly as both US individuals and institutions withdrew their hot money, which was causing dark clouds to gather.

A recovery in Coinbase Premium is important for price stability, but that's not the case yet.

Bitcoin needs to lose the $78K level daily, both in terms of True Market Mean and short-term average cost zones. The previous 79K support level acted as price support during the decline; now, there are two areas that need to act as support when it rebounds: 78,200 and 78,400. If we remove the decimals, 78K is a significant area. The ongoing daily dip below this level creates problems because short-term traders incurring losses again triggers panic selling, leading to even faster pullbacks. As long as the price remains above 78K, short-term traders are in a favorable position.”
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