Token unlocks are coming in full force: STRK, SEI, ARB release over $20 million this week, how will the market absorb it?

From May 15 to 16, the crypto market saw a concentrated wave of token unlocks. On May 15, Starknet (STRK) and Sei (SEI) each unlocked approximately 127 million and 55.56 million tokens, respectively. Arbitrum (ARB) followed on May 16 by unlocking approximately 92.65 million tokens. Against the backdrop that liquidity has not yet fully rebounded, this batch of newly released supply concentrated in a short window creates quantifiable supply pressure on the altcoin market.

How large is this round of concentrated unlock?

In terms of nominal value, the total unlock amount for the three projects exceeds $23 million. STRK unlocked 127 million tokens—worth about $6.8 million based on the price on that day—accounting for 4.05% of circulating supply. SEI unlocked 55.56 million tokens—about $3.8 million—accounting for 0.95% of circulating supply. ARB unlocked 92.65 million tokens—about $13 million—accounting for 1.71% of circulating supply.

From the perspective of relative impact, although STRK’s unlock amount is not the largest among unlock events this week, its 4.05% share of circulating supply is the highest level among events this week. This means STRK’s supply increase is the most pronounced within a single unlock day. SEI’s share of roughly 0.95% is relatively mild, and its ratio to average daily trading volume is below 5%, which theoretically implies lower market absorption pressure.

What differences exist between the token models of STRK and SEI?

Although both projects use a monthly unlock mechanism, the underlying logic behind STRK and SEI’s tokenomics differs fundamentally.

STRK’s total supply is 10 billion tokens. It uses a linear release plan over 31 months. Starting from August 2025, every 15th of the month, tokens are locked and released monthly, continuing until March 2027. Of the 127 million tokens unlocked this time, about 66.6 million tokens are allocated to early contributors, and about 60.4 million tokens are allocated to investors. Early contributors and investors both have strong incentives to monetize their unlocked tokens, which results in a relatively higher probability of selling.

SEI’s total supply cap is also 10 billion tokens, but its unlock period is longer. It releases roughly 1.5% to 2% of new tokens each month, with the plan continuing through 2032 and beyond. This means SEI’s supply dilution is a structural process spanning multiple years, not a short-term, one-time shock. SEI’s tokenomics tightly links the unlock mechanism with ecosystem incentives and network governance. The unlocks are designed not only to expand supply, but also to align with network security contributions and staking incentives.

Why did the market react before the unlock date?

The real impact of token unlock events often starts before the date itself. Market participants can learn in advance about the unlock date, the size of the unlock, and the allocation structure by beneficiary type. As a result, they begin adjusting positions weeks before the unlock. This “front-running” effect causes some of the price movement to be priced in before the event lands.

Data shows that the impact on token prices typically begins to appear about 30 days before the unlock event. In March 2026, the crypto market absorbed up to $6 billion worth of supply shocks due to scheduled token releases, which fully demonstrates that the predictability of unlock events itself is a core variable in market pricing. From May 13 to 16, unlocks were highly concentrated within three days, forming a clustered supply-pressure zone and further reinforcing this pre-emptive effect.

Does a supply shock necessarily translate into real selling pressure?

The size of an unlock does not equal the size of selling. Whether it turns into real downward price pressure depends on the interaction of three variables: market absorption capacity, liquidity depth, and holder behavior.

In terms of market absorption capacity, Bitcoin is currently trading in a consolidation range, and altcoin liquidity is unevenly distributed. Institutional capital is mainly concentrated in large assets. Under these conditions, the ability of smaller and mid-cap assets to absorb supply shocks is relatively limited. Regarding liquidity depth, when the unlock size approaches the average daily trading volume over several days, the order book can thin out quickly; even sellers of moderate size can move prices toward key support levels. In terms of holder behavior, not all unlocked tokens are immediately sold. Team-allocated funds may continue to be held; foundations may release tokens gradually according to schedule; and strategic investors may exit in batches or absorb large amounts of supply off-market through OTC trades.

Can high-market-cap projects absorb unlock shocks better?

Market cap and average daily trading volume are two core indicators for measuring a project’s ability to absorb unlock shocks.

Among the three projects, SEI’s unlock volume accounts for 0.95% of circulating supply, and the ratio to average daily trading volume is below 5%. Historical data shows that when the ratio is at this level, the market usually can effectively absorb selling pressure. ARB benefits from its ecosystem position as the network with the highest total value locked in Ethereum Layer 2, with an average daily trading volume of about $300 million; the higher trading volume makes the impact of unlocks relatively more controllable.

STRK’s pressure is more pronounced. Its 4.05% share of circulating supply means that the short-term supply increase is significant, requiring stronger buying power to achieve stable absorption of the price. Notably, Starknet launched strkBTC two days before the unlock (May 12). Through the SNIP-36 privacy framework, it enabled Bitcoin DeFi functionality on Layer 2, which previously pushed the intraday price rise of that day’s token price up to 50%. Whether this ecosystem catalyst’s short-term demand can effectively offset the unlocked supply is the key point the market is watching right now.

Does concentrated unlocking mean a structural negative for altcoins?

From a long-term perspective, token unlocks are not simply a negative signal. Their essence is an inevitable part of tokenomics design. Project teams release tokens that were locked earlier in stages, gradually expanding circulating supply and increasing decentralization and liquidity depth. Unlock events bring previously locked liquidity into open markets, playing a key role in determining short-term market cycles, and also serving as a highly predictable indicator of downward price pressure.

However, when multiple large unlocks occur sequentially within a few days, the market enters a short-term “supply-heavy” state, where the efficiency of absorbing supply becomes the key determinant of price stability. This week’s Layer 2 sector is under the greatest pressure: STRK and ARB released a combined total of approximately $18.8 million in new supply within 48 hours, and both are tokens allocated to teams and investors. This implies that there may be direct selling after the unlock. Sector-level pressure may transmit to smaller Layer 2 protocols through related transactions rather than directly impacting STRK and ARB themselves. Since both have ample average daily trading volume, they are expected to digest their respective unlock pressure without causing severe volatility.

Summary

The concentrated unlock events for STRK, SEI, and ARB from May 15 to 16 are a focused test of the altcoin market’s ability to absorb supply. Differences across the three projects in unlock scale, token models, and ecosystem support determine the different risks each faces from supply shocks. STRK has the highest relative share of circulating supply; early contributors and investors have clear monetization incentives, leading to the greatest pressure. SEI’s unlock share is moderate and supported by sufficient liquidity depth, making the impact more controllable. ARB has strong trading activity and a solid ecosystem position, giving it the strongest absorption capacity. Market participants should pay attention to the unlock-to-trading-volume ratio and the on-chain token transfer paths, rather than using only the nominal unlock amount as the basis for judgment.

FAQ

Q: Where will the tokens unlocked in STRK’s current unlock go?

Of the 127 million tokens unlocked in this round, about 66.6 million tokens are allocated to early contributors, and 60.4 million tokens are allocated to investors. The market’s focus is whether early contributors and investors will transfer the tokens to centralized exchanges within 72 hours, which will directly affect the strength of short-term selling.

Q: When does SEI’s long-term unlock plan end?

SEI’s monthly unlock plan will continue until 2032 or even longer, releasing about 1.5% to 2% of new tokens each month. This long-term supply dilution is structural, meaning selling pressure is not a short-term problem; it must be offset by continuous demand growth.

Q: Will unlock events necessarily lead to a price decline?

Not necessarily. The size of an unlock does not equal the size of selling. The ultimate impact depends on three variables: market absorption capacity (whether there are enough buyers), liquidity depth (whether the order book can absorb sell orders), and holder behavior (whether unlocked tokens are immediately sold). If new demand is strong enough, the unlocked supply can be absorbed without causing major price fluctuations.

Q: How can I assess the actual risk of an unlock event?

It is recommended to monitor the following indicators: the proportion of unlock volume to circulating supply, the ratio of unlock volume to average daily trading volume, the allocation structure of unlocked token holders (team/investors/foundation), the on-chain flow of tokens after the unlock (whether they move to exchanges), and the magnitude of price reactions in the weeks leading up to the unlock event.