May 13 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

🌞 News:
Last night, CPI was hotter-than-expected, short-term negative but not fatal

Energy index contributed significantly, overall inflation accelerated compared to March, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts have been further delayed.
After the CPI release, U.S. stock futures slightly declined, U.S. Treasury yields rose, Bitcoin faced short-term pressure, dropping over 2% during yesterday’s session, accompanied by a $320 million leveraged long position liquidation.

The inflation rebound is mainly driven by energy, not a complete out-of-control situation, but combined with geopolitical factors, the oil price pressure related to U.S.-Iran conflict, short-term risk appetite has decreased, which is negative for the crypto market. However, historical experience shows that if CPI remains "hotter" without continuous deterioration, the market often quickly absorbs it.

🌞 Capital:
Single-week inflows in mid to late April approached $1 billion, and early May continued strong (although there was a slight outflow on May 7-8, the overall trend remains robust). Total net inflow has nearly reached $60 billion.

ETF daily purchase volume far exceeds daily new mining output (about 450 coins), the institutional buying logic remains unchanged, even if CPI triggers short-term selling pressure, it is quickly absorbed. This is currently the strongest support factor, and capital conditions are clearly better than news sentiment.

🌞 Technical:
The news last night caused some shock, but capital and institutional demand have greatly compressed the correction space. This is not a trend reversal but a typical macro noise phase of institutional accumulation.

Currently, the market is still oscillating around 80K, with the range between 79,200 and 82,500. The upward trend on the daily chart remains valid, but the MACD at this level has formed a divergence at high levels, indicating that upward momentum is gradually weakening. Therefore, short-term risks at the daily level should be monitored, but combined with the four-hour small cycle, as long as the MACD fast and slow lines do not break below zero, the price will continue oscillating and repairing within this range. In summary, the weekly trend remains upward at this position, but attention should be paid to the risk of divergence at the daily level if it fails to break through 82,500. During the day, a rebound may occur within this range, with resistance at 82,000 to 82,500.