May 12 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

News:
U.S. President Trump stated yesterday that he is considering restarting the free plan, geopolitical tensions (such as Iran-related news) caused short-term volatility, but Bitcoin's digital gold attributes became evident, leading to a quick rebound. In the overall macro environment, institutional and corporate buying provides support.

Capital:
ETF and institutional funds: Despite daily outflows fluctuations, the cumulative inflow in May remains positive (about $635 million MTD), combined with increased corporate holdings, forming a supply contraction effect. This supports the price rebounding over 35% from the April low of $60,000.

Perpetual contract funding rates have recently been neutral to slightly positive (not extremely high), indicating that leveraged longs are not overly crowded, reducing forced liquidation risk, but also reflecting cautious market sentiment. Historically, when funding rates turn positive or neutral, prices often trend upward.

Technical:
As expected, the past few days have continued to fluctuate within the range of 79,200 to 82,500. Currently, the key levels to watch are on the four-hour chart. The 82,500 level has been tested three times without a breakout, and its upward momentum is gradually weakening. Therefore, attention should be paid to the strength of downward retracements. The short-term support remains at 79,150; if this level breaks, the price may move around 77,000. In summary, the daily chart remains bullish in the short term, but the four-hour and one-hour charts show a need for retracement. During the day, expect mainly sideways movement and downward correction.

Support: 79,200-77,200
Resistance: 82,500-83,000
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