#Gate广场五月交易分享 Is the Altcoin Season really here? ONDO surges 34%, SOL makes a strong rebound, Bitcoin's market share drops below 60%, what signals does this release?

In the past few months, the market has been dominated by one phrase: "Only BTC is rising, altcoins are not in a trend." But this week, the trend seems to be changing. ONDO skyrocketed 34% in a single week, SOL surged over 6%, and several small- and mid-cap tokens are warming up simultaneously; meanwhile, Bitcoin's market dominance (BTC Dominance) has fallen back to around 60.6%, indicating a clear "outflow" of market funds. Many investors are starting to revisit that familiar question: Is the Altcoin Season quietly returning?

According to CoinMarketCap and BlockchainCenter's Altcoin Season Index data, the current altcoin season index has significantly rebounded from previous lows, indicating that market risk appetite is recovering, but there is still some distance from a "full altcoin season."

1. ONDO surges 34%, RWA track becomes a new focus for capital
In this rebound, one of the most eye-catching projects is undoubtedly ONDO. As a leader in the RWA (Real World Assets) track, ONDO has increased by over 34% in a short period, reigniting market imagination around "traditional finance + blockchain." The logic of Ondo Finance is not complicated: it attempts to tokenize traditional financial assets such as U.S. Treasuries and bond yields via blockchain.
Simply put: "Bringing Wall Street returns into the crypto market." Under the current macro environment, there are three core reasons why RWA is gaining renewed attention:
1. The Fed's rate cut expectations are heating up, and the market is re-trading the "liquidity return" logic. Once global risk appetite improves, funds will gradually flow from BTC to more volatile, elastic altcoins.
2. Traditional institutions are starting to deploy on-chain assets. Firms like BlackRock and Fidelity are continuously promoting the development of on-chain assets, making RWA no longer just a concept but a direction genuinely recognized by institutions.
3. The market needs new narrative themes. AI, MEME, DePIN, RWA are becoming the core directions of current capital rotation. And ONDO happens to have: RWA concept, U.S. bond yield logic, institutional narrative DeFi attributes, so a concentrated capital explosion is not surprising.

2. SOL gains strength again, Solana ecosystem begins to recover?
On the other hand, Solana is also starting to become active again. SOL's single-day increase exceeds 6%, and multiple tokens within its ecosystem are rising in tandem. Over the past six months, Solana has been one of the most controversial public chains in the market. Some believe it has "fallen out of favor." Others argue: "Solana is the truly high-performance chain suitable for large-scale applications." Behind this rally, there are several important reasons:
1. On-chain activity continues to recover. Recently, Solana's on-chain transaction volume and DEX activity have been steadily increasing. Especially with the Meme coin craze, Solana has once again become one of the most active public chains among retail investors.
2. ETF expectations are heating up. The market is starting to discuss: "Will SOL become the next ETF narrative?" Although not yet officially implemented, capital often pre-positions based on expectations.
3. High ETH gas fees, capital seeks alternatives. Compared to Ethereum mainnet, Solana's lower transaction fees and higher speed remain attractive. Especially in high-frequency on-chain trading scenarios, SOL's advantages are very apparent.

3. Bitcoin's market share drops to 60.6%, an important signal emerges. The most critical change in this market is not ONDO or SOL rising, but: Bitcoin dominance begins to decline. According to market data, Bitcoin's market share has fallen to about 60.6%. This indicates that: market funds are starting to spread from BTC to altcoins.
Historically, a typical bull market fund rotation path is:
First stage: BTC rises, institutional funds prioritize entering Bitcoin.
Second stage: ETH catches up, funds chase higher yields.
Third stage: Mainstream altcoins like SOL, AVAX, LINK start outperforming BTC.
Fourth stage: Full altcoin season, small- and mid-cap coins surge wildly.
Currently, the market is likely in a transition phase: "BTC → Mainstream Altcoins."
However, it should be noted that: the current Altcoin Season Index has not yet reached the standard for a "full altcoin season." According to CoinMarketCap and BlockchainCenter data, the Altcoin Season Index is currently around 40. A true altcoin season usually requires a reading above 75, meaning: what we see now is more like a "partial altcoin rally," not a full-blown celebration.

4. Why do many people feel "altcoins are not profitable"?
This is the biggest contradiction in the current market. Although some tokens are surging, many altcoins are not showing clear signs of recovery. The reason is very practical: this round of market funds are more "selective."
In past bull markets: as long as there was a coin, it would almost always rise.
But now, it's different. Funds are increasingly concentrated in: projects with institutional narratives, real revenue, active ecosystems, ETF expectations, and on-chain user growth. Those old altcoins without liquidity, users, narratives, or capital attention are gradually being phased out.
This means: the era of "blindly buying everything and making money" is over.

5. The real focus should be on "changes in capital style"
Many people focus on: "Which coin is rising?" but what truly matters is: funds are now willing to take on higher risks. This is the core signal of market sentiment recovery. Because: when the market is in panic, funds only dare to buy BTC. When optimism returns, funds will flow into: SOL, ONDO AI concepts, MEME small caps, and other high-risk assets, which often indicates that: risk appetite in the bull market is re-emerging.

6. The most critical market observation points moving forward
In the coming weeks, several indicators will be very important:
1. Will BTC dominance continue to decline?
If BTC's market share continues to fall below 60%, it indicates further expansion of fund dispersion.
2. Can ETH catch up?
Historically, before a true altcoin season begins, ETH usually experiences a strong rally.
3. Will the Altcoin Season Index break above 50?
Currently still in a "transition zone." If the index rises further, the altcoin rally could fully spread.
4. ETF and Federal Reserve policy changes
Liquidity remains the core driver of the entire market.

7. Conclusion: Altcoin season may not be fully here yet, but the market has already begun to change
The current market is very similar to late 2019 and early 2020. Back then, many also believed: "Only BTC can rise." But then: ETH, SOL, DOGE, AVAX, etc., all experienced explosive growth.
Of course, this does not mean: all altcoins will take off. On the contrary, this cycle is more likely to be a "strengthening of the strong" structural bull market. Projects with narratives, capital, and ecosystems will continue to attract attention. For ordinary investors: rather than blindly chasing gains, it is more important to understand: where is the capital flowing?