May 8 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

News:
Consensus 2026 Conference (May 5-7): During the conference, Fundstrat Chief Analyst Tom Lee explicitly announced "the end of the crypto winter," emphasizing that Bitcoin has risen for three consecutive months (March +1.8%, April +12% to about $77,000, and May has approached $81,000). If the May closing price stays above $76,000, it will officially confirm the start of a new bull market.

White House Digital Asset Advisor Patrick Witt stated that the Senate Banking Committee may push forward the crypto market structure bill "markup" in May, with market expectations imminent. This provides certainty for institutional entry.

Several banks have canceled expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, but Bitcoin remains unaffected, continuing to break through the $80,000 mark, demonstrating its resilience as a risk asset. VanEck Digital Asset Research Director also reiterated a long-term bullish outlook that Bitcoin could reach $1 million within five years.

Capital:
Bitcoin spot ETF capital flow: In April, a net inflow of about $2.44 billion for the entire month (the strongest month this year), with total assets under management exceeding $102 billion. Since May, the positive trend has continued, with a single-day inflow of about $467 million on May 5. Major products like BlackRock's iBIT continue to attract funds, reversing previous slight weekly outflows.

On-chain data: Bitcoin has broken through the True Market Mean ($78,200) and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis ($79,100), two key cost bases representing the average cost line of institutions/short-term holders. Breaking through usually indicates further upside potential. Network transaction volume increased by 22% week-over-week, although active addresses slightly declined, overall capital inflow signals are clear.

In the chart, Glassnode on-chain risk indicators show BTC has surpassed the True Market Mean and short-term holder cost basis, with the next target being the Active Realized Price around $85,200.

Technical:
Yesterday, I shared the idea of BTC mainly retracing. The daily candle closed with a large bearish candle. Today’s outlook is similar; if the daily does not continue with a bullish extension, attention should be paid to weakening upward momentum and the risk of volume-price divergence. Watch the support at $79,200; if it does not break, there will still be rebound opportunities. Over the weekend, focus on the strength of downward retracement. As long as it stays within the $77,200–$79,200 range, it’s a normal retracement. Currently, the weekly chart has encountered resistance at the EMA30 line, so this level will likely oscillate around high levels for a while before a clear direction is chosen.
Support: $79,200–$77,200
Resistance: $82,500–$85,000
#BTC回调