May 7 $BTC Market Overview and Analysis

News:
U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) update: White House Digital Asset Advisor Patrick Witt stated at the Consensus Miami conference that details of the strategic Bitcoin reserve will be announced in the “coming weeks,” following the recent asset custody incident involving the U.S. Treasury highlighting the need to protect federal crypto holdings, which is a long-term positive for BTC’s position as a national asset.

Geopolitical easing: Iran’s peace agreement hopes to trigger a 6% plunge in oil prices, with risk assets (BTC, Nasdaq futures) rising in tandem.

Institutional and legislative optimism: VanEck Digital Asset Research Director predicts BTC reaching $1 million within five years; the Market Structure Bill (CLARITY Act) gained momentum in May, boosting institutional confidence.

Overall sentiment: BTC rebounded to its highest level since January, supported by favorable policies and geopolitical factors boosting risk appetite.

Capital flow:
ETF funds: April saw the highest monthly net inflow since 2026 (about $1.97-2.44 billion), led by BlackRock IBIT; May continued the inflow trend, with over $467 million on May 1 alone, and cumulative positive inflows approaching $1 billion over several days. Institutional buying continues to drive spot demand.

Derivatives funds: Open interest (OI) increased significantly (recently reaching over $29 billion), accompanied by a large number of short liquidations, creating a short squeeze. Perpetual contract funding rates fell to historic lows (negative), indicating shorts dominate but are being squeezed out, with short-term leverage remaining cautious.

BTC perpetual funding rate 7-day moving average recently entered negative territory (red zone), at historic lows. Price rebounded, signaling a typical short squeeze.

Technical:
🚀 successfully broke through the $80k resistance, short-term bullish but facing the 200-day moving average test.

Daily chart: Uptrend structure has changed, but watch for weakening momentum. Bulls aiming to continue upward movement should not see a dip below $79,200.
4-hour chart: MACD shows a death cross at high levels; downward correction is expected, but the pullback should not be deep. Watch for a secondary rebound after the correction, which could form a bearish divergence, increasing the likelihood of a deeper pullback.
1-hour chart: MACD hovers near zero; monitor whether it breaks below zero, mainly expecting a pullback. Support levels are at $80,600-$79,200, resistance at $82,500-$84,000.