In the past couple of days, the group has started linking "increase in stablecoin supply = imminent rally" and "ETF net inflow = crypto market taking off" as if they are directly connected, basically treating correlation as causation. It sounds a bit like false prosperity. More stablecoins might mean someone is waiting for an opportunity, or it could just be OTC arbitrage, market making, or simply moving funds around without changing positions; ETF inflows don't necessarily mean the money is immediately pouring into those few altcoins.

And that recent interpretation of "U.S. stock risk appetite improving/worsening, so crypto must follow" feels more like giving a narrative to emotions. Anyway, before I enter the market, I always plan my exit routes: keep positions small, set clear stop-loss points, and don't get fooled into thinking you've caught the causal chain just because of a few fund flow screenshots. The group chat is lively, but don’t get carried away.