#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin surged 12.7% in April, but there's a signal worth paying close attention to

The just-passed April saw Bitcoin rise 12.7%, marking the best monthly performance since April 2025. Ethereum increased by 8%, also rising for two consecutive months, reaching its strongest monthly gain since August last year. If you only look at price charts, this is definitely a month to celebrate. But we need to stay calm because there’s one data point that’s more concerning than the price increase itself.
01 Large gains, but weak buying demand
Crypto data research firm CryptoQuant recently released a report with a core point: Bitcoin’s April rally was entirely driven by futures demand, while spot demand continued to shrink throughout the rally. So, this market move was pushed up by leverage, not genuine buying support. Specifically, CryptoQuant tracks the real demand indicator of Bitcoin’s 30-day spot net inflow changes, which remained negative throughout April. The "real demand" from users actually buying Bitcoin not only didn’t increase but decreased. Meanwhile, trading demand for futures and perpetual contracts surged significantly.
CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, explained more plainly: "The divergence between rising futures demand and shrinking spot demand indicates that this price increase is driven by leveraged funds, not sustained accumulation by market participants."
02 Historical patterns: such markets often end badly
Moreno also pointed out a key historical pattern: from past experience, markets like this lack the structural fundamentals to sustain a rally. Once futures positions are heavily liquidated, prices tend to pull back. This is not alarmist talk.
In the 2022 bear market start, similar conditions appeared—futures demand surged while spot demand declined, ultimately leading to a prolonged price decline. The current demand pattern resembles that of the 2022 bear market start. Back then, the market looked prosperous, prices seemed fine, but actual buyers were dwindling while speculators increased. The result? Bitcoin fell from $69,000 to $17,000.
03 Market structure is changing
The report also reveals a deeper issue: the crypto market environment is undergoing a structural shift. Perpetual contracts have become the core arena for trading activity, liquidity, and price discovery. Meanwhile, the spot trading that early exchanges relied on for growth and revenue is losing its influence.
Simply put, today’s crypto market is increasingly resembling a "derivatives market" rather than a "spot market." The price discovery mechanism may have fundamentally changed, making traditional technical and fundamental analysis less applicable.
04 Bitcoin bull-bear strength index has fallen from 50 to 40
CryptoQuant’s bull-bear strength index has dropped from 50 in April to 40, indicating market sentiment is "turning more bearish." Coupled with the previous analysis, the logic is clear: technically, the market looks good (two months of gains), but fundamentally, it’s weak (real buying demand shrinking). Behind this "false prosperity," larger risks are brewing.
05 What will happen in May? It depends on this level
According to analyst forecasts, Bitcoin may face a critical test in May: the 200-day moving average. Currently, the 200-day MA is around $79,400, an important technical threshold. If Bitcoin can break through this level effectively, it could signal the start of a new upward trend; if it gets rejected again, caution is warranted for a potential pullback.
Analysts’ target price range from May 11 to May 20 is $78,000 to $84,000, depending on whether it can break the $79,400 key level.
06 How should we act?
In this environment of "rising but lacking confidence," here are some suggestions:
First, don’t be fooled by short-term gains. A rise doesn’t mean fundamentals are improving; learn to see through the true situation behind the data.
Second, pay attention to the relationship between spot and futures demand. If they continue to diverge, be extra cautious.
Third, control leverage and position sizes. High leverage in such a market could force you to liquidate during a pullback.
Fourth, manage risks carefully. No matter how optimistic you are about the future, set stop-loss levels to protect your capital.
The crypto market has never lacked stories of quick riches, but it’s also full of liquidation tragedies. Surviving in this market is more important than making quick money.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and risky; please make rational decisions and implement personal risk management.