May 3rd $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

News:
#BTC closed nearly 12% higher in April (best monthly performance of the year), and May continues with stable expectations. It remains resilient amid geopolitical tensions, with regulations (such as the Clarity Act) and institutional adoption boosting confidence. Historically, May tends to be relatively strong, and yesterday there was no major negative news, indicating the market is in a recovery phase.

Capital:
On May 1st, ETF net inflows reached $630 million, with over $2.4 billion accumulated in April, totaling nearly $58.5 billion in inflows, with AUM exceeding $100 billion. Continuous buying by institutions remains the core driver.

ETF weekly/daily inflow chart (showing a warming trend in April-May 2026):
Futures funding rates are in positive territory at low levels (~0.001-0.003%/8h), with no excessive leverage, indicating a healthy environment conducive to upward movement.

Recent low positive/ rebound phase in the funding rate history chart.

Technical:
The resistance level I mentioned yesterday at 79,200 was perfectly hit, leading to a quick pullback. Currently, the market risk at the candlestick level remains on the daily chart, so the summary is that as long as the price does not break through 79,200 in the next two days, attention should be paid to the risk of daily divergence. It takes time to repair. A relatively healthy scenario would be to retest the 73,700 level to build a base before rebounding. Touching the 80,600~86,000 range would be healthier. In the short term, on the hourly chart, the divergence risk should also be monitored, with support levels around 77,500 to 75,500.
Support: 75,500-77,500-73,700
Resistance: 79,200-80,500#美国寻求战略比特币储备