#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin drops to 70k: Is this the start of a crash or the beginning of a bottom-fishing opportunity?

Bitcoin drops to 70k: Is this the start of a crash or the beginning of a bottom-fishing opportunity?

Bitcoin & Ethereum: 20 days of "free fall"
Bitcoin (BTC) high on January 15: 97k; current low: around 70k; 20-day decline of about 27%
The key point is that during these 20 days, there was almost no decent rebound, just a continuous decline
Ethereum (ETH) high on January 15: 3,300; current low: around 2,000; 20-day decline over 39%
If you think "this is exaggerated," let's review some past history.

Cases of Bitcoin dropping over 25% within 20 days after 2022
After 2022, there have been several typical cases where Bitcoin fell more than 25% in a short period: 1️⃣ 2025.11.11
107,000 → 80,600, 10 days, down 25%
2️⃣ 2024.7.29
70,000 → 49,000, 6 days, down 30%
3️⃣ 2022.11.6
21,000 → 15,000, 4 days, down 28%
4️⃣ 2022.6.7
31,000 → 17,000, 12 days, down 45%
5️⃣ 2022.5.5
40,000 → 26,000, 8 days, down 35%
6️⃣ 2021.11.10
67,000 → 42,000, 24 days, down 37%
If you look carefully, you'll notice: in 4 out of these 6 cases, the decline occurred during the 2022 bear market; the November 10, 2021 event was the start of the bear market crash.

After a sharp drop, will there be a "V-shaped" rebound?
In these short-term declines of over 25%, is there a significant rebound afterward?
The answer may disappoint many: almost none.
In these cases, the most common pattern after a plunge is only one—sideways consolidation, digesting the chips! It won't directly push prices to new highs.
So, in summary: when a "bear market" is confirmed, the first rebound is often a window to exit, not a signal to bottom fish.

This wave isn't actually sudden; will there be new lows?
That's the most concerned question.
1️⃣ Short-term: Breaking lower again is not easy
Currently, the Fear & Greed Index
11 compared to before:
December 16: 10
November 16: 9
So, the current 10 is already a very low value, and the 70,000 price level is a critical threshold, making it relatively difficult to break below in the short term!
2️⃣ ETF: No signs of panic outflows
Since January 16, Bitcoin ETF outflows haven't been extreme:
January 16: -390 million
January 20: -470 million
January 21: -580 million
January 30: -500 million
Most other days show small outflows around 100 million, and recently—over the past two days—the outflow momentum has significantly weakened.
Looking at overall inflow and outflow:
From October 2024 to May 2025, ETF inflows were highly concentrated during these periods, while Bitcoin prices mainly ranged between 60,000 and 100,000.
What does this mean?
Bitcoin around 70,000 is already below the ETF's average holding cost range. If it continues to fall below 70,000, the price you buy at could even be lower than the cost basis of the first wave of institutional ETF buyers, since Bitcoin has been at 60,000 since March 2024!
3️⃣ Long-term: Already in the "value zone"
From a longer cycle perspective: Bitcoin's monthly chart has experienced five consecutive down months, a rare occurrence—never seen with more than four consecutive months of decline.
Looking at Bollinger Bands: in the last bear market, the monthly Bollinger lower band touched the bottom boundary, indicating a phase bottom.
Currently, the monthly Bollinger lower band is at 56,000, meaning 56,000 is a theoretical limit, not necessarily to be reached.
From 124,000 to 56,000: a decline of about 54%, whereas the previous maximum decline was 76%, and each bear market's maximum retracement has been converging.

Multiple indicators point to the same conclusion
AHR999 = 0.37, below 0.45 for only 570 days, above 0.45 for 4,913 days, accounting for less than 10% of the time.
The current price is approaching or even below the shutdown cost of mainstream mining rigs.
The final conclusion: this is not an emotional gambling zone but a value investing zone.
It's not about going all-in or bottom fishing but about starting to scale in, rationally, for the long term.
Will the market give us even lower prices?
Possibly. But based on history, costs, and indicators, this range is already worth slowly loading your bullets into the chamber.