May 1st Bitcoin Comprehensive Market Analysis

News:
Neutral to cautious sentiment, macro pressures have been the main influence recently with no major sudden negative news, but geopolitical tensions (oil prices, inflation concerns) and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance (delaying rate cuts, high US bond yields) continue to suppress risk asset sentiment. Bitcoin's dominance has first broken through 60% in 2026, indicating capital concentration in BTC, which is a structural positive.

Funding:
ETF capital flows: Overall net inflow in April was strong, showing institutional demand is rebounding; on April 30th, there was a slight daily inflow of about $23.5 million. Total accumulated inflows remain positive, with total asset management exceeding $100 billion. However, there are short-term fluctuations, with some days showing small outflows.

Derivatives and on-chain:
Perpetual contract open interest recently rebounded to high levels, but funding rates are mostly negative (e.g., an average of -0.0028%), indicating shorts are paying longs, and short positions are relatively crowded, which could trigger a short squeeze. Past data shows negative rates have sometimes signaled potential bottoms.

Technical:
The resistance I mentioned yesterday was at 77,500; today, it perfectly rebounded to 77,500 and then pulled back. Currently, the key is whether the daily chart can sustain a large bullish candle to push higher. If not, there is a risk of divergence. The current market will still mainly oscillate, as the daily chart needs to recover. The oscillation range is between 73,700 and 77,500. Even if it moves upward, if the daily chart does not break through 79,300, short-term downside risk remains. I personally believe strong support is around 70,800.

In summary, the technicals have not broken down, but the rebound momentum is gradually weakening. If the strong support at 70,800 holds, there is still room for a bottoming rebound.