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Caught the soybean action on Wednesday and it was pretty choppy. Started strong but couldn't hold it - contracts ended all over the place. The cash bean price dropped 4 cents to around $10.64, soymeal futures took a hit down $1.90, but soy oil actually popped 107 to 132 points higher. Pretty interesting split there.
The strength in bean oil is supposedly coming from word that EPA's dropping their 2026 biofuel blending quotas to the White House for review this week. That's got traders watching the renewable energy angle pretty closely.
Bigger picture stuff: USDA Ag Outlook Forum is coming Thursday and the trade is bracing for some acreage numbers. Word is they're gonna peg soybean acreage at 85 million acres - that'd be 3.8 million more than last year if it sticks. Production estimates are sitting around 4.43 billion bushels, up 168 million from 2025. That's a decent jump.
Brazil's also in the mix. ANEC is calling February soybean exports at 11.46 million metric tons, down slightly from last week but still running way ahead of last year's pace. So global supply dynamics are shifting too.
Looking at the specific contracts: March soybeans closed down a half cent at $11.33, May was up a quarter at $11.49, July dropped a quarter to $11.61. Nearby cash bean sitting at $10.68. Definitely keeping an eye on how these numbers play out once the USDA report hits.