#加密市场小幅下跌 Early morning FOMC showdown night!

On April 29, 2026, the overall crypto market entered a risk-averse correction mode ahead of policy announcements, with Bitcoin and Ethereum moving in tandem with weak volatility, and their trends diverging further. Bitcoin experienced a slight pullback, with a relatively solid structure, while Ethereum continued to decline, significantly underperforming the broader market, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate kept hitting new lows. Currently, the market shows no random fluctuations; all rises and falls precisely reflect macro policy battles, geopolitical crises, capital disagreements, and regulatory expectation changes. In the early hours of April 30, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve’s ultimate interest rate decision will be announced, combined with Powell’s last FOMC meeting of his chairmanship and a major catalyst for Ethereum MegaETH. The next 24-48 hours will determine whether this round of market moves bottom out and rebound or break through deeply.

1. Market overview: BTC resists decline, ETH weakens, hidden signals in market divergence
1. Bitcoin: Healthy correction, not a trend reversal. Intraday Bitcoin trading range locked at $75,656—$77,478, with the last quote at $75,996, down 2.95% over 24 hours. Compared to the high above $79,000 on April 26, the cumulative correction is only 3.8%, a normal technical repair after an upward move, with no systemic collapse risk. The core features are very clear: spot support and contract liquidation. The decline is entirely driven by derivatives leverage liquidations; spot demand has not collapsed, and medium- to long-term institutional buying remains strong.
2. Ethereum: Continues to decline, weak trend fully evident
Ethereum’s trend is significantly weaker than Bitcoin, exhibiting a typical “decline—small rebound—further pressure” weak cycle. Intraday price range is $2,284—$2,294, with a 24-hour decline of 0.2%-0.8%, briefly dipping to $2,278, then quickly retreating after a brief rally to $2,300. The opening price this week was $2,303.33, the lowest in a week, down 2.8% from the previous trading day; compared to the $2,400 high on April 26, the correction totals 4.5%. Data clearly shows divergence: Bitcoin gained 13.5% in April, while Ethereum’s increase is only 9%, with a clear trend of funds abandoning ETH for BTC.
2. Four major macro negatives suppress the market! The underlying logic of this weak market is a collective correction in crypto, not due to individual coin issues, but a resonance of multiple macro negatives, all released on the eve of the FOMC decision.
1. Federal Reserve’s final decision: 8 declines in 9 meetings. Historical patterns suppress the market. This FOMC is Powell’s last rate decision in his term. The market generally expects rates to remain at 3.50%-3.75%, but wording could directly change the trend. More critically, historical data shows: in the past 9 FOMC meetings, 8 times Bitcoin fell within 48 hours after the meeting, with an average drop of 5.6%. Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh, a leading candidate for the next Fed chair, was reported to hold large amounts of crypto assets. The market pre-prices a “friendly Fed” expectation, but short-term funds are hesitant to bet on favorable news, opting to reduce positions and seek safety, directly suppressing prices.
2. Geopolitical crises intensify: Oil prices surge, fueling inflation fears. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, US-Iran negotiations are deadlocked, and Iran’s conditions for reopening the strait are not accepted by the US, keeping global oil and gas supply chains tight. Coupled with the UAE’s announcement to exit OPEC and OPEC+, oil supply worries intensify, with Brent crude soaring to $110 per barrel. High oil prices reinforce inflation expectations, disrupting the Fed’s rate cut pace, and exert systemic pressure on stocks, cryptocurrencies, and all risk assets—this is the core macro backdrop of the current market weakness.
3. Yen arbitrage collapse, indirectly pressuring crypto markets: On April 28, the Bank of Japan’s rate decision was more hawkish than expected, maintaining rates with a 6:3 vote split, with three members supporting immediate rate hikes, the largest disagreement in the current term. After the decision, USD/JPY fell to 158.95, with the market pricing a 74% chance of a June rate hike. The rapid yen appreciation sharply compressed yen financing arbitrage space, forcing passive unwinding. Ethereum, as a high-beta risk asset, is more affected by spillover shocks than Bitcoin, further widening the divergence.
4. AI market collapse + regulatory slowdown, market risk appetite hits bottom: Recently, OpenAI’s revenue and user growth data fell short of expectations, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping 1% in a single day, and AI leaders like Nvidia and Oracle plunging over 2%. Negative sentiment in tech stocks quickly spread to digital assets. Coupled with the US Clarity Act negotiations slowing, regulatory certainty expectations cooled, and investor sentiment turned cautious, leading to a continued decline in overall risk appetite.
3. Deep capital analysis: Extreme long-short battles hide reversal opportunities
1. Bitcoin: Institutional spot accumulation, aggressive leverage shorts. The capital situation shows a stark contradiction and is the biggest highlight of the current market: institutional support is strong—over the past week, US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $933 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading; listed companies like Strategy increased BTC holdings by $255 million from April 20-26, with long-term funds still deploying. Short-term leverage liquidations are intense: $342 million in leverage positions liquidated over 24 hours, including $270 million in long liquidations, with open contracts at high levels of $25.1 billion, amplifying short-term volatility. Meanwhile, market short sentiment is at a peak: the short interest rate soared to 19% (a new high since early 2023), with $1.4 billion in short positions concentrated near $80,000, and perpetual contract funding rates remain negative. Extreme short sentiment suggests a short squeeze is building, which could trigger rapid upward moves once key resistance is broken.
2. Ethereum: ETF fund divergence, longs continuously squeezed. Ethereum’s capital situation is weaker, with severe institutional disagreement: on April 27, Ethereum ETF net outflows were $50.48 million, with Fidelity’s FETH outflows of $48.43 million, while BlackRock’s ETHB saw slight net inflows. Compared to Bitcoin ETF inflows of $2.44 billion in April, Ethereum’s $540M inflow shows a huge gap in investor preference. Derivatives are even more bearish: perpetual funding rates turned negative, dominated by shorts; $32.8 million in longs were liquidated in 24 hours, accounting for over 71% of total liquidations, with longs passively reducing positions. ETH is stuck in a typical decline stalemate: no panic, no rebound, no buyers, continuously eroding market patience.
4. Technical panorama: key support and resistance, precise trading ranges
1. Bitcoin key levels (BTC): Resistance zones—short-term $77,510—$78,280 (repeated supply zone); strong resistance—$79,200—$80,000 (psychological and options-heavy strike, with 7,200 BTC contracts under pressure). Support zones—core support at $75,500 (20/100-day moving averages + rising channel confluence, 290k BTC cost basis, very strong support); secondary support—$75,000; deep support—$72,000. Technical summary: mixed signals—spot CVD surged significantly, miner selling pressure paused, daily charts show rebound needs; but trading volume shrank, market panic spread, and the 200-day moving average is declining, so the rebound is only a correction, not a trend reversal.
2. Ethereum key levels (ETH): Resistance zones—short-term $2,311—$2,320 (7-day moving average resistance); strong resistance—$2,390—$2,400 (previous resistance, large sell-off zone, potential for $290k short liquidation if broken). Support zones—lifeline support at $2,250—$2,263; critical liquidation levels—$2,220—$2,240; secondary supports—$2,180/$2,150; deep supports—$2,000—$2,100. Technical summary: short-term structure is weak—multiple moving averages broken, low volume, pessimistic sentiment; but RSI near oversold, major institutions low-positioning, exchange holdings decreasing, so downside is increasingly limited, awaiting catalysts for rebound.
5. Final 24-48 hour market scenario: two possible paths, both centered on the April 30 Fed decision and Ethereum MegaETH TGE launch, with only two outcomes:
Scenario 1: Dovish stance, triggering a bottoming rebound (high probability of correction). If Powell signals easing, hints at rate cuts within the year, combined with positive news from the White House on Bitcoin reserves and successful MegaETH launch boosting the ecosystem: BTC will rebound quickly, challenging resistance at $78,000—$80,000, triggering a short squeeze; ETH will hold the $2,250 support, rebound to reclaim $2,320 resistance, and challenge $2,400, repairing the weak short-term structure.
Scenario 2: Hawkish stance, continuing deep correction (extreme risk scenario). If Powell emphasizes persistent inflation and maintains high rates longer, coupled with sustained high oil prices: BTC drops below $75,000 support, further down to $72,000 support; ETH loses $2,250 support, accelerating to $2,150, with the weak trend further reinforced.
6. Final summary and risk reminder
In the short term, the crypto market is at a policy window’s emotional and strategic bottom. Bitcoin spot support is solid, with limited downside—more of a shakeout correction; Ethereum remains weak short-term but is oversold and priced in negatives, so excessive pessimism is unwarranted. In the medium to long term, Fidelity’s research report clearly states Bitcoin has completed its bottom formation and is preparing for the next major rally; Ethereum, supported by ETF institutional backing, ecosystem upgrades, and RWA tokenization, still has room for recovery after bottoming out.