192837465657.48T range sideways accumulation, funds lying flat waiting for a decision

In terms of market, after yesterday's surge and pullback, BTC repeatedly tested the bottom in the 76,500–77k range, ETH moved in tandem between 2,280–2,320, with extremely diminished volume, a typical "weekend + news vacuum period" characteristic.
Last night, there was indeed a pulse reaching 79,400, which was institutions testing the selling pressure at the 80k level, and casually harvesting a wave of high leverage.
The early morning 77,000 was just the residual warmth from last night's market, not a new offensive.
And the 77,000–78k range is a strong resistance zone.
ETF funds just shifted to net outflows yesterday, institutions are retreating, retail investors dare not buy in, naturally unable to hold.
What’s the outlook moving forward?
Continue to watch for a sideways to weak trend.
Before the FOMC meeting on Wednesday (April 30), big funds are all pretending to be dead.
If the Federal Reserve continues to be hawkish (maintaining high interest rates longer), this rebound will be the last escape route for short-term investors, with support at $75,000, and if broken, then $72,000.
On-chain data side
Bitcoin ETF net outflow of $263 million indicates institutions are temporarily retreating.
Based on today’s on-chain signals, all are risk warnings.
The market has not established its own trend, but is heavily influenced by news.
After all, a single-day net outflow of $263 million is a signal from the data we should pay attention to.
Yesterday, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a total net outflow of $263 million.
This is the first turn negative after nine consecutive days of net inflow, a very poor signal.
Fidelity (FBTC) net outflow of $150 million, Grayscale (GBTC) net outflow of $46.63 million.
These major institutions chose to take profits before the 80k level.
Of course, data can also be misleading; some data might be manipulated to look good for the market.
What will happen exactly?
As long as these ETFs do not experience panic selling, we can rest easy.
Addresses holding 1,000+ BTC haven't moved, but short-term holders are selling heavily in the $78,000–$80,100 range.
Whales haven't entered to buy, chips are just transferring between wallets, indicating big money is also watching and not planning to push hard at this level.
Perpetual contract funding rates have been negative for several days, with shorts still holding on stubbornly.
This structure can easily trigger a short squeeze surge, but also means that if longs weaken, the liquidation will be very brutal.
The market is relying on "geopolitical expectations" to hold up, the real test is the Fed’s decision on Wednesday.
If an extreme situation occurs, the market will face a storm, though the probability is very small, we must prepare for low-probability events.
In news updates
Yesterday’s “phone gate” was still a hot topic, but today it was cooled down.
Reuters reported that Trump is "dissatisfied" with Iran’s new proposal, believing it does not touch the core nuclear issues.
The US insists that nuclear issues must be addressed early in negotiations, while Iran wants to delay them, creating a structural contradiction that cannot be resolved; the so-called "detente" is all talk.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, Iran still insists on tolls for passage, and geopolitical risks have not been alleviated.
This kind of "emotional rebound" is the most dangerous, as institutions are quickly entering and exiting, stuffing their pockets.
Once negotiations collapse, the drop will be faster than anyone else.
This Wednesday (April 30), the FOMC meeting, the market heavily bets on maintaining interest rates in the 3.50%–3.75% range with a 99% probability.
The focus is not on whether to raise rates, but on whether to cut rates.
More importantly, this could be Powell’s last rate decision as Fed Chair, with his term ending on May 15.
Against the backdrop of oil prices still above $100 and complex inflation prospects, Powell is likely to continue hawkish rhetoric about "maintaining high interest rates longer," which will directly shatter liquidity expectations.
The current volatility is testing true long-term investors; those retail investors who can’t hold on will exit, leaving the remaining ones to share more of the cake in the bull market.
Don’t worry about short-term ups and downs, don’t envy others’ short-term gains, hold your main coins, keep enough cash, and wait for the Fed’s decision to settle and for the market to give a clear direction.
The above content is for informational exchange only and does not constitute any investment advice!