#Solana发布量子路线图 Forbes: Does Quantum Technology Threaten the Encryption Industry? But More Likely an Opportunity

Currently, the encryption industry is already preoccupied with public opinion storms, geopolitical conflicts, and financial turbulence, and Google's latest research has brought new challenges to this field: the timeline for practical quantum computing is continually moving forward. For years, the potential threats posed by quantum computing have been discussed, debated, and studied in articles within the industry, and blockchain developers have long been working on quantum-resistant encryption technologies. But what truly stirs the investment market is the speed of technological iteration. Google's Quantum Artificial Intelligence team states that a quantum computer with fewer than 500k qubits could crack the elliptic curve encryption used by Bitcoin—which has long been regarded as the most secure encryption method. Setting aside the technical parameters of qubits, the key fact is: the latest estimates for the number of qubits needed are much lower than previously expected, which also pushes the "life-and-death test" for the blockchain ecosystem to 2029.

In addition to Bitcoin potentially exposing security vulnerabilities in just nine minutes, another report also focuses on the risks faced by Ethereum: the network has up to five potential attack vectors, which, if exploited, could threaten DeFi and tokenized assets worth approximately $100 billion. It should be clarified that the quantum computers mentioned in these research reports have not yet been realized and remain theoretical. However, related discussions have already led to double-digit gains in tokens and protocols with quantum-resistant features. Moreover, tokens adopting more advanced protocols such as zero-knowledge proofs, viewed as "quantum-adaptive," are also benefiting from this wave of attention. Beyond speculative emotions and panic-driven surges, as quantum technology continues to penetrate broader financial markets, investors should recognize some key lessons and insights.

Quantum risks are no longer just theoretical; this is actually a positive development. Discussions around quantum computing and cryptocurrencies have shifted from abstract risks to quantifiable, tangible threats. New research shows that quantum systems may only need between 10k and 26k qubits to break widely used encryption standards—significantly fewer than the previously estimated millions. More importantly, attack scenarios are no longer hypothetical. Researchers have outlined some attack methods: private keys can be extracted from ongoing transactions within minutes, or funds can be transferred even before transaction confirmation. This reality redefines the core issues for investors, auditors, and policymakers: the risk is no longer just "will quantum computers appear," but whether existing systems can migrate quickly enough to post-quantum encryption. Estimates suggest that "quantum nodes" could arrive as early as 2029, and the time window for the industry to respond is shorter than most infrastructure upgrade cycles.

From a practical perspective, the market faces a typical accounting and valuation challenge: recognizing and assessing potential liabilities before contingent liabilities turn into actual losses. Despite the underlying threats gradually becoming apparent, market behavior indicates that participants are not waiting for the situation to clarify. Tokens and projects with anti-quantum features have already surged nearly 50%, meaning capital is preemptively allocating to defensive infrastructure and related projects. This is a common pattern in financial markets: investors tend to price in structural risks before they fully materialize. In the current context, this means capital is flowing into quantum-resistant encryption technologies, upgraded blockchain protocols, and participants focused on security in this field.

Meanwhile, despite increasingly clear warnings, the prices of mainstream crypto assets remain relatively stable. This reflects a market consensus: this transformation will be completed through protocol-level upgrades rather than the industry’s collapse. For accounting and auditing professionals, this introduces a new dimension to valuation analysis. Digital assets must now contend with market volatility and regulatory changes, as well as the risk of technological obsolescence—such risks must be disclosed, modeled, and stress-tested.

The encryption industry is unlikely to disappear, but its underlying architecture will be reconstructed
Despite the mounting urgency of warnings, the overall conclusion of various studies and industry commentary is very clear: quantum computing will not overthrow blockchain but will force it to rebuild its security systems.

Recent analyses have identified multiple attack paths, including rapid exploitation of vulnerabilities at the transaction layer and slow attacks targeting dormant wallets with exposed keys. Meanwhile, ongoing research in post-quantum cryptography indicates that feasible countermeasures already exist, though their adoption is uneven. Importantly, any observer, investor, or policy advocate can demonstrate that blockchain systems are not static. Protocol upgrades, hard forks, and cryptographic algorithm migrations have long been part of the ecosystem’s operational mechanisms. Compared to traditional financial infrastructure, this adaptability itself is a structural advantage.

Quantum computing does not bring fatal flaws but rather presents an involuntary push for advancement. The ultimate winners will not be those trying to avoid risks but those who drive the transition forward—embedding post-quantum resilience into governance, information disclosure, and technical design before threats fully materialize.