► The ETH Burn After The Merge

everyone knows EIP-1559 burns ETH, but what they really want is ETH burns faster than it gets issued.
right now, the answer is mostly no.
since EIP-1559, around 5.3M ETH (~$12.3B) has been burned. ~4.3% of pre-Merge supply basically deleted from circulation.
Ethereum still issues new ETH to validators every day.
post-Merge issuance is much lower than before, around 1.7K ETH/day now vs roughly 13K ETH/day before the Merge, but it still exists.
current ETH supply is around 121.6M ETH, while supply at the Merge was around 120.52M.
after all the ultrasound money memes, ETH supply is actually slightly higher than Merge day.
I see ETH more like activity-driven money.
when blockspace is expensive, ETH gets burned faster. when blockspace is cheap, issuance wins.
the network needs something around 16 gwei base fee to burn enough ETH to offset issuance.
but 2025–2026 gas has often been sitting way below that, sometimes around 3 gwei or even lower.
Dencun made L2s cheap. blob data cut L2 costs by something like 90–98%. only a few dozen ETH are burned every day in this env.
Ethereum already became cheaper and more scalable, which is good for users, but weirdly bad for the burn narrative.
I’m not saying ETH economics are broken. it just means the model changed. the new bull case is more nuanced.
39M+ ETH is staked now, ~32% of supply, with around 1.2M+ validators.
ETH can be mildly inflationary on raw supply but still tight on liquid float if staking, ETFs, treasuries, and long-term holders keep absorbing coins.
I think the better take is that ultrasound money became conditional.
if mainnet demand comes back from DeFi, NFTs, RWAs, AI agents, L3 settlement, or higher blob fees, burn can matter again.
if not, inflation around 0.2–0.3% is even lower than BTC post-halving inflation.
ETH just needs a big chunk of supply not really floating around the market every day to go higher.