#Gate13thAnniversaryLive

#Gate13周年现场直击 What are the expected positive and negative factors for the April 17th negotiations? Subsequent market analysis

Let's review today's market: During the early hours, the market surged across the board, with Ethereum strongly rising from 2280 points to the 2360 level, a short-term increase of nearly 80 points. Bitcoin also advanced from 73,300 to around 75,500, a rally of over 2,200 points. In the early trading session, the market turned into a sideways decline, with Ethereum retreating from its high to around 2315, a pullback of about 45 points. Bitcoin's intraday volatility was relatively limited, with no significant retracement space. After midday, the market rebounded again, with Ethereum stabilizing and bouncing back to 2340, a rebound of nearly 25 points. Bitcoin also retested the 76,300 level from 74,500, gaining nearly 1,800 points. Last night, long positions were set up, and both Bitcoin and Ethereum took profits simultaneously. From the daily technical chart of Bitcoin, the previous candlestick closed with a classic hammer pattern, indicating strong buying support below. The market opened and maintained a narrow range of consolidation at high levels, with the Bollinger Bands opening upward and the short-term moving averages diverging upward, establishing a short-term bullish technical pattern on the daily chart. The MACD indicator's fast and slow lines continued upward, but the volume bars showed decreasing momentum, reflecting that the current bullish momentum is gradually weakening, and upward driving force is diminishing. The KDJ lines are converging and turning downward, with strong resistance near the 100 level, which warrants caution. The VR indicator remains around 110, maintaining a sideways consolidation, with market activity at a stage of relative stability.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin is quoted around 75,100, with the key resistance at 75,000 still effective. After several days of testing, the core support zone below is clearly between 74,000 and 73,500. Overnight, positive overseas news continued to ferment, whether related to geopolitical negotiations, regional ceasefire agreements, or positive comments, all helping US stocks reach new highs. However, the cryptocurrency market, after rising, has remained in a high-level sideways pattern, unable to break through recent highs. This indicates that the market's sensitivity to positive news has been decreasing, and the positive effects of news have been gradually digested. If geopolitical negotiations break down, ceasefire agreements expire, or regional conflicts flare up unexpectedly, the previous sharp rally driven by news is likely to quickly reverse, increasing the risk of short-term high-level oscillations.

From the four-hour technical perspective, after touching the upper Bollinger Band, the price faced clear resistance and fell back. Currently, the price is moving near the middle Bollinger Band and the short-term moving averages, with the Bollinger Bands flattening and the short-term moving averages running parallel, indicating a phase of consolidation. The MACD's fast and slow lines are turning downward, with green bars increasing and volume expanding, and the DIF line crossing below the DEA line to form a death cross at high levels, signaling that short-term bearish momentum is gradually dominating, and upward energy is waning. The KDJ indicator is also turning downward, and the VR remains high around 200, with market bulls and bears in fierce contention. Overall, the technical signals suggest that the current market is in a typical high-level consolidation, with the four-hour chart showing a clear range with strong resistance at 75,500 and support at 73,500. Until the price effectively breaks this range, a high-low oscillation trading strategy can be adopted. From a broader trend perspective, the market is still in a bear cycle, with rebounds mainly driven by fragile positive news, lacking sustained bullish momentum. Once positive factors fade and market sentiment declines, further significant drops are likely, and the risk of short-term high-level oscillations will increase.

From the detailed four-hour structure, the price previously reached the upper channel and faced resistance, then retraced. Currently, the price is oscillating around the middle Bollinger Band and multiple moving averages, with the channel narrowing and flattening. The moving averages have shifted from divergence to sideways arrangement, compressing the trading range. The MACD's two lines are turning downward from high levels, with the histogram shrinking and volume increasing, indicating that bullish momentum is depleting, and the market is gradually shifting toward a bearish bias. The KDJ is also turning downward, signaling a technical correction. The VR remains high, and market participation is cautious, with a stalemate between bulls and bears, but bears have the short-term advantage. The overall structure shows Ethereum forming a high-level, well-defined consolidation box, with resistance at 2380 and support at 2290. Until there is a confirmed breakout, trading within this range is recommended. The overall market trend remains in a bear cycle, with rebounds driven by external positive sentiment but lacking fundamental support. Once short-term positive catalysts fade, the four-hour bearish momentum will further extend, increasing the risk of a deep correction.

From the four-hour detailed analysis, the price previously touched the upper channel and retraced. Currently, it is moving around the Bollinger middle line and multiple moving averages, with the channel narrowing and flattening. The MACD's two lines are turning downward, with the histogram shrinking and volume expanding, indicating that bullish energy is waning, and the market is shifting toward a bearish trend. The KDJ is turning downward, and the VR remains high, with market sentiment cautious. The structure shows Ethereum forming a high-level, well-defined consolidation range, with resistance at 2380 and support at 2290. Without a confirmed breakout, trading within this range is advised. Ethereum's overall correlation with the broader market remains high, and all recent rebounds rely on external positive sentiment, lacking independent fundamental support. Once these catalysts fade, the four-hour bearish momentum will further extend, increasing the risk of a deep correction.

Short-term trading suggestions:
Bitcoin: Short at 76,000-76,500, target: 74,000-73,000, stop-loss: above 77,000.
Ethereum: Short at 2,360-2,380, target: 2,300-2,260, stop-loss: above 2,410.
This article is time-sensitive and only provides a market judgment at the moment of publication; it does not constitute investment advice.