The wealthiest Federal Reserve Chairman in history, kept outside by an absurd political farce

Writing by: Little Biscuit, Deep Tide TechFlow

Introduction: Kevin Warsh, with a net worth exceeding $200 million and having invested in Polymarket, is 30 days away from taking the helm at the Federal Reserve and holding a key vote.

Next Monday, April 21st at 10 a.m., Washington.

Kevin Warsh will sit at the hearing of the Senate Banking Committee, facing questioning. If all goes well, he will become the first chairman in Federal Reserve history to openly have invested in Polymarket, Solana, and Bitcoin Lightning Network startups.

But nothing will go smoothly.

Because in this hearing room, one of the 13 Republican members has already publicly announced: no matter what Warsh says, he will vote against him. This person is Thom Tillis, a Republican senator from North Carolina.

His opposition has nothing to do with Warsh himself. His reason is that the Department of Justice is still investigating current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The origin of this investigation is a building renovation expense.

$2.5 billion renovation project: a targeted blow to the independence of the Federal Reserve

The story begins in 2025.

The budget for the Federal Reserve headquarters renovation was severely overspent, ultimately costing about $2.5 billion. Powell testified about this before the Senate Banking Committee. Washington D.C. federal prosecutor Jeanine Pirro then launched a criminal investigation, citing the possibility that Powell made misleading statements during congressional testimony, and issued a grand jury subpoena to the Fed.

Powell responded intensely. He publicly stated that the real purpose of the investigation was not the renovation overspending, but retaliation from Trump for his refusal to cut interest rates faster.

Tillis sided with Powell. The soon-to-retire Republican senator from North Carolina, who will leave office in 2027 and has no re-election concerns, said firmly: “Protecting the independence of the Federal Reserve from political interference or legal intimidation is non-negotiable.”

His position is clear: before the Department of Justice concludes its investigation of Powell, he will not vote to approve any Fed nominees, including Warsh.

The Republican majority in the Senate Banking Committee is only 13 to 11. Without Tillis’s vote, and with Democrats almost certain to oppose, Warsh’s nomination cannot pass the committee.

On the other side of the investigation, Prosecutor Pirro remains relentless. Federal Judge James Boasberg has already dismissed her subpoena, explicitly stating in the ruling that “the government has submitted no evidence of fraud,” and that the main purpose of the investigation appears to be pressure on Powell. Pirro announced she would appeal and publicly called Tillis’s obstruction “white noise.”

“I don’t know, and I don’t care. I am following the legal channels, and what they say doesn’t matter to me.”

The three parties are deadlocked. Warsh is caught in the middle.

After May 15, who will sit in the chair of the Federal Reserve Chair?

Powell’s term as Chair expires on May 15. This is a hard deadline.

But his term as a Fed governor runs until January 2028. This means that even if his Chair term ends, he remains legally a member of the Federal Reserve Board.

Powell has made it clear: if Warsh is not confirmed before May 15, he will continue to lead the Fed as “acting Chair.” New York Fed President John Williams publicly supported this stance, saying the Federal Open Market Committee can “continue to operate as usual” without a new vote.

This creates an unprecedented situation: Trump nominated a new Chair, but the old Chair refuses to leave, with both sides claiming the right to sit in that chair.

The White House clearly does not want to see this scenario. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters, “We want Warsh to take office as soon as possible.” Kevin Hassett, head of the National Economic Council, was more optimistic, saying he is “highly confident” Warsh can take office before Powell’s term ends. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott predicted, “The Department of Justice will conclude its investigation in the coming weeks, and Tillis will ultimately vote in favor.”

But these are hopes, not facts. The reality is: from the hearing on April 21 to May 15, only 24 days remain. During these 24 days, three steps must be completed: hearing, committee vote, and full Senate vote. Under normal circumstances, this process takes weeks to months.

And what Tillis said today to CNN leaves no room for ambiguity: “I won’t spend five minutes asking Warsh about his qualifications because he is indeed qualified. I will spend five minutes talking about that false investigation, and before it ends, I will vote against him.”

$192 million in a 69-page document: the wealth map of the next Fed Chair

While the political game intensifies, Warsh submitted a 69-page OGE 278e financial disclosure form on April 14. This document is not only a necessary prerequisite for confirmation but also a mirror reflecting what kind of person this potential future Fed Chair is.

First, the size. Warsh’s personal assets are estimated between $131 million and $209 million, with his wife Jane Lauder (a member of the Estée Lauder founding family, with an estimated net worth of about $1.9 billion according to Forbes) holding several hundred million dollars in assets. If confirmed, he will become the wealthiest Fed Chair in history, far surpassing Powell (assets estimated between $19.7 million and $75 million). His core holdings include two investments exceeding $50 million each in Juggernaut Fund LP, related to legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller’s Duquesne family office. Warsh received $10.2 million in consulting fees from Duquesne, $1.55 million from GoldenTree Asset Management, $750k from Cerberus Capital, and $750k from Brevan Howard—all institutions with deep involvement in crypto and macro trading.

Then, the more intriguing part: through DCM Investments 10 LLC and AVF series funds, Warsh holds stakes in a series of crypto and blockchain companies. These include Ethereum Layer 2 network Blast, decentralized prediction market Polymarket, Bitcoin Lightning Network payment company Flashnet, Ethereum development platform Tenderly, DeFi investment platform SkyLink, blockchain social network Arena and DeSo, and crypto-focused investment firm Polychain. He has also previously invested in Bitwise, which manages a spot Bitcoin ETF.

According to OGE rules, these unmarked positions imply each is valued below $1,000. The size is tiny. But the signal is very strong.

This is not someone who passively bought some Bitcoin spot ETFs in a brokerage account. His holdings actively traverse the entire crypto ecosystem—from Layer 1 to Layer 2, from DeFi to prediction markets, from payment infrastructure to developer tools—systematically laying out over a dozen cutting-edge projects. Every track he has touched is directly relevant to the areas most affected by Fed regulation and monetary policy decisions.

Warsh has promised to liquidate all potentially conflicting assets upon confirmation. OGE certification officer Heather Jones confirmed that after liquidation, he will meet the requirements of the Government Ethics Law.

But the question isn’t whether he will sell these positions. The question is: what does it mean if someone with such deep knowledge of crypto infrastructure becomes Fed Chair?

Two paths, two worlds

The market now faces a classic binary game.

Path A: Pirro withdraws the investigation, Tillis switches to support, Warsh takes office in mid-May.

This is the White House’s bet. Scott Bessent publicly said, “Let’s wait for the new Chair Warsh to lead the next rate-cut cycle,” implying Warsh might push for rate cuts soon after taking office. Although Warsh has historically been hawkish (warning of inflation risks even during the 2008 financial crisis), recent signals suggest he leans toward supporting rate cuts. For crypto markets, a Fed Chair who understands the crypto ecosystem and favors easing liquidity is the most favorable scenario imaginable.

Path B: Pirro appeals, Tillis refuses to back down, Powell continues as acting Chair.

This is a scenario full of uncertainty. Powell has explicitly stated he will not leave the Fed before the investigation concludes. If he continues to preside over FOMC meetings and set interest rates as acting Chair, Trump will face a “de jure retired but de facto still in power” Fed Chair. This constitutional-level debate over Fed independence could be decided in the Supreme Court, which has yet to rule on whether Trump has the authority to dismiss Fed Board member Lisa Cook.

For the markets, Path B means ongoing uncertainty. The direction of monetary policy will depend on the outcome of a legal tug-of-war, whose timeline no one can predict.

And what does this have to do with Bitcoin? Everything.

On the surface, it’s a Washington palace intrigue about Fed personnel. But for crypto market participants, every variable directly points to asset prices.

Interest rate path. Warsh’s appointment suggests expectations of rate cuts will rise. Bessett has already publicly said, “Let Warsh lead the next cycle,” hinting at a possible rate cut soon after Warsh takes office. Rate cuts are a clear positive for risk assets. If Powell continues as acting Chair, he’s likely to maintain a “pause” stance amid inflation risks from the US-Iran tensions, delaying rate cuts until later this year or beyond.

Regulatory signals. A Fed Chair who has invested in Polymarket, Tenderly, and Polychain, versus Jerome Powell who once publicly said, “If I were the government, I would shut down cryptocurrencies,” will have vastly different impacts on crypto regulation. Warsh has called Bitcoin a “good policeman of policy,” believing Bitcoin prices can tell policymakers when they are doing right or wrong. This cognitive framework suggests he is unlikely to support hostile regulation of the crypto industry.

Stablecoin legislation. Warsh’s confirmation timeline overlaps heavily with the ongoing push for stablecoin legislation in Congress. A crypto-friendly Fed Chair could significantly accelerate this process.

At next week’s hearing, Tillis will likely spend his five-minute questioning not asking Warsh about monetary policy but attacking Pirro’s investigation. This scene alone will make headlines worldwide.

The real suspense isn’t at the hearing but whether Pirro will withdraw her investigation before May 15. What is Tillis’s bottom line? If neither side backs down, will Trump intervene directly in the Department of Justice?

With 30 days left until Powell’s term ends, who sits in the Fed Chair’s seat afterward will redefine the rules of the game for global capital markets in late 2026.

For crypto markets, these 30 days may be more consequential than any FOMC meeting.