$ETH

4.9 Morning Macroeconomic Overview
Early Tuesday morning, the US and Iran reached a preliminary agreement to cease fire for two weeks after mediation involving Pakistan. Peace talks are scheduled to take place in Pakistan this Friday. The market's optimism was boosted by the ceasefire agreement, leading Bitcoin and Ethereum to surge sharply early Tuesday, briefly breaking through 72,000 and 2,270 respectively before quickly pulling back. On Wednesday evening, the market experienced a slight dip as Israel continued missile strikes on Lebanon. Iran reiterated that a ceasefire must include stopping military actions against Lebanon; otherwise, they will temporarily withdraw from negotiations. Today, Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz and stated that the US and Israel violated three points of the agreement before negotiations, though details were not provided. As negotiations approach, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes also analyzed the domestic economic situation, the ongoing US-Iran conflict during this period, and the gradual recovery of the labor market, all of which are very unfavorable for inflation growth. Hawk and dove factions are divided on interest rate hikes and cuts. Policy tightening, rising inflation, and the ongoing war make the situation very difficult to handle.

Summary: Negotiations are approaching. Prepare for defense. Both sides may reach an agreement or break apart, leading to renewed conflict. The market is betting on a final showdown—whether the nearly two-month-long volatile market can come to an end.

Bitcoin major downside suppression: 75,000-76,000 range; Ethereum 2,270-2,300 range. If there is a valid breakout and a retest, a continued rebound could confirm a trend reversal.