每周编辑精选 Weekly Editor's Picks（0328-0403）

The information flow is too fast, and in-depth analysis articles are easily drowned out by the latest headlines. The “Weekly Editor’s Picks” section pulls these decision-worthy pieces out of a flood of information for you, filters out the noise, leaves you with insight, and brings inspiration.

Macroeconomic Developments

Global economic recession—has it been quietly under way?

The author redefines recession from an “economic outcome” into a “strategic condition.” It not only compresses growth and employment, but also weakens a country’s bargaining power, capital appeal, and external credibility—causing it to lose initiative in the global game. That’s precisely why governments around the world are replacing monetary tools with fiscal, diplomatic, and even geopolitical measures. In essence, they’re buying time for growth to slow and avoiding being forced into negotiations during a recession.

Within this framework, the market’s core is no longer the interest-rate path itself, but rather: who can break free of constraints, and who is still trapped within them.

This difference first shows up in the FX and interest-rate markets, then further filters through to asset prices and capital flows. When valuations keep rising even as growth cools, the reason might not be an improvement in fundamentals—rather, it could be policy expectations that say a recession won’t be allowed to happen.

First visit after Buffett stepped down: This is not a bargain-hunting moment; nuclear weapons will be used sooner or later

Apple sold early—but it’s not buying now either.

I won’t be bottom-fishing in U.S. stocks at this time.

The most dangerous scenario is when the person holding the nuclear button is either about to die, or is facing enormous humiliation. In that situation, no one can predict what a person will decide. In the next one hundred years—maybe two hundred years—nuclear weapons will be used.

$700 billion poured into AI—Americans already tasted the bitterness of inflation

The more you invest in AI, the higher inflation gets, the farther rate cuts recede, and the higher financing costs become—but investment is still accelerating.

The arms race among big tech can’t be stopped. One data center can outpace all the electricity use of an entire state.

$700 billion is flowing into AI infrastructure. Whether this money is the cause of inflation or the prelude to a productivity revolution depends on a question nobody can answer yet: in these data centers, will the models running there actually make the economy more efficient?

In conversation with Pantera’s founder: Bitcoin has reached escape velocity, and traditional assets are being left behind

It’s not that gold hit new highs—it’s that paper money is setting new lows.

The average age of first-time homebuyers in the U.S. has already shifted from 28 to 40.

We’re facing a generational turning point where money becomes separated from the nation. Stablecoins will very likely take away half of bank deposits within a decade. Bitcoin has already reached escape velocity.

Investing and Entrepreneurship

Interviewing 10 Dubai workers: Some are asked to sign a “life-and-death guarantee”

On the ground, Dubai is already in a battlefield.

Some Web3 workers are fleeing, some are staying put, and some are signing “life-and-death guarantees” (company liability exemption) and returning to Dubai, hoping to bet on high career upside under high risk.

“Retreat of” the ve-token model: Why three major protocols are choosing to give up the former ace

The reason isn’t a theoretical mistake, but a failure at the execution layer: low participation rates, governance captured, emission flows redirected into unprofitable pools, and token prices dropping sharply even as usage grows.

Meanwhile, Curve’s veCRV and Aerodrome’s ve(3,3) are still developing healthily. But this model only works where the emissions it is designed to guide can create real economic demand for liquidity.

At the same time, other protocols are choosing income-supported buybacks, deflationary supply mechanisms, or liquidity-governance tokens as alternative solutions to the ve-token model.

Tiger Research: Analysis of the current status of retail investors across Asia’s nine major markets

Tiger Research covers the nine Asian markets with the largest user volumes, analyzing the barriers to entry for retail investors and exchanges’ response strategies. The core findings: there are structural differences in access-threshold hurdles among markets like South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, and others—and the key variable in whether exchanges’ localization strategies can work is local execution. This is valuable reference for project teams looking to expand to Southeast Asia.

Also recommended: 《Odaily interview with SharpLink: Ethereum’s “productive capitalists”》。

Web3 & AI

What exactly are AI agents doing? Full analysis of Claude Code’s 500k lines of code leak

The competitive moat of AI products may not be in the model layer, but in the engineering layer.

For AI products, model inference cost may not be the most expensive layer—cache management failure is.

Chased AI tools for a year and got zero output: A reflection from a serial entrepreneur

Don’t treat “trying new tools” as “building something yourself.” When everyone can use the same model, the only moat is taste and depth—and taste can only be won through real consequences and sustained focus.

Tiger Research: What AI services do crypto companies offer?

Adoption motivations differ across various sub-industries: exchanges aim to prevent user churn; security companies aim to fill audit blind spots; and payment infrastructure targets the emerging agent economy.

In the field of artificial intelligence, FOMO and competitive pressure are accelerating adoption—far beyond actual demand. Both real demand and competitive anxiety are playing a role.

Distinguishing between adoption that creates value and adoption that merely slaps on labels is the key question.

Prediction Markets

A $1 return rate of only 43%—why are 87% of Polymarket players losing money?

“Out-of-favor preferences” are one of the most expensive mistakes in prediction markets. Traders often systematically overestimate low-probability events, paying too high a price for contracts that look cheap.

Traders who truly outperform prediction markets in the long run aren’t necessarily the ones who make the most accurate judgments, but the ones who can adjust their judgments the fastest and most rationally when new evidence appears.

Bayesian methods, in essence, provide a measure of this “adjustment speed.”

Don’t bet on a hunch: AI is “picking up money” on Polymarket

The article introduces a method to identify arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket and execute them systematically: use Perplexity to do research and locate deviations between data and market pricing; use Claude to build trading logic, control risk, and automate execution; and finally complete trades and monetize them on Polymarket.

For ordinary participants, a more realistic path is to first find determinism through research, then amplify returns with a system.

Also recommended: 《Polymarket smart money panorama: 26 long-term trackable addresses (broken down by track)》。

CeFi & DeFi

Stripe up, PayPal down: A new king is crowned in payments

Stripe’s judgment is straightforward: when AI agents begin making purchase decisions for humans, whoever controls the payment channels will get ahead of the core lifeline of the AI economy. Stripe’s forward-looking vision has kept it ahead of the entire payments industry.

Meanwhile, PayPal is stumbling. PayPal’s business model lives on “transaction/transfer fees on funds flow,” while the stablecoin business model relies on “earning Treasury interest from parked assets.” There’s a natural conflict between these two logics. Every time PayPal promotes a PYUSD stablecoin payment, to some extent it’s actually eating away at its own traditional fee revenue. In PayPal’s current business framework, this problem is hard to solve.

BTC is on its last legs—why is HYPE surging up 20% against the trend?

A new source of value support comes from Hyperliquild’s RWA trading market empowered by HIP-3.

A comprehensive deep dive into Hyperliquid HIP-4: trading via prediction markets and options to absorb traditional finance

The overall market is in a downward trend, yet HYPE has shown extremely strong stability. The important reason is without doubt Hyperliquid’s strong fundamentals: its focus on creating revenue and the way it continuously uses profits for HYPE buybacks.

HIP-3 (an infinite contract market deployed by builders) has already shown a clear pattern: when infrastructure is permissionless and has been validated by the market, liquidity tends to gather around stronger teams—regardless of whether they receive additional ecosystem support.

The same logic will also apply to HIP-4. HIP-4 focuses on “outcome trading.” It will bring prediction markets and certain specific types of options into Hyperliquid—these products can provide nonlinear payoff outcomes while also having no liquidation risk.

In the past, no protocol was good enough to truly bring sustainable options trading into the crypto world. Hyperliquid has done it, and its way of doing things is different from every other platform. This platform has no investors and is unaffected by any external pressure, so Jeff can freely decide what the company wants to do. In this respect, Hyperliquid is a lot like Telegram: you don’t need to spend much money on marketing—the key is the belief itself. If the product is good enough, people will come use it sooner or later.

Hyperliquid has the chance to capture the entire crypto options market.

Winners will build real-world-facing products, embedding crypto as the underlying implementation detail. Losers will keep clinging to the old narrative of “crypto for crypto’s sake,” and hope the entire world will adapt to them instead.

Airdrop Opportunities and Interaction Guide

Trending interaction roundup | Abstract new badge missions; Noise Beta version is live (April 2)

Meme

A post-00s kid making A7 a month—trapped across three screens

Odaily interviewed Meme P newcomers who still can get big results in 2026, as well as former Meme diamond hands, to understand their path to making money and their work-and-life routines.

Bitcoin

Lose $11k for every mined Bitcoin—Bitcoin miners collectively defect to AI

CoinShares’ latest mining report shows that the weighted average cost to mine one Bitcoin among listed miners has risen to about $80k, while BTC’s current price is $68,000–$70k—meaning they lose roughly $11k for every mined Bitcoin.

The Bitcoin mining industry is undergoing the most fundamental transformation since its founding. The clearest signal isn’t hash rate or difficulty adjustments, but the balance sheet—and the way out is to fully pivot toward AI infrastructure.

When Bitcoin mining rigs fly into space

For Bitcoin mining companies currently operating, space mining doesn’t yet pose a practical competitive threat in the short term, but that also shows that a large number of startups are continuously trying it. This indicates the huge cost-reduction space it represents behind the scenes, and the resulting attractiveness and imagination of the industry remain very strong. This also reflects, on the side, that the entire industry is facing structural cost pressure.

The logic of space mining is the ultimate extrapolation of the above trend: if cheap electricity on the ground will ultimately be squeezed by competition for demand, then go to the place with the most abundant energy—space, i.e., the universe.

Security

Google’s big breakthrough in quantum computing—crypto will need to “change locks” early

Led by experts including Craig Gidney, Google’s quantum research team (Google Quantum AI) has launched two major moves in succession.

First, on March 25, Google formally proposed that its post-quantum cryptography (PQC) migration timeline should target 2029. Second, on March 31, Google Quantum AI specifically published a research report aimed at the crypto industry, stating that based on the latest research results, cracking the elliptical-curve cryptography used to protect cryptocurrencies with future quantum computers will require far fewer resources than previously understood.

The industry’s timeline assumptions in the past need to be updated. Google set its migration target for 2029, and Google Quantum AI also mentioned in the article that it is collaborating with institutions such as Coinbase, the Stanford Blockchain Research Institute, and the Ethereum Foundation, and that it is responsibly progressing according to the 2029 schedule.

For every crypto project, this means a brand-new security dividing line. Whoever can recognize the problem earlier, push upgrades, and complete the “lock change” will have a better chance to keep its security boundaries intact in the next era.

Also recommended: 《Odaily interview with Yu Xian: How does the leak of an Anthropic “nuke-level” new model affect crypto security offense and defense?》。

One-week hot topics roundup

Policy and Macro Markets

U.S. lawmakers’ offices plan to publish next week a draft on stablecoin yield terms, and the industry is preparing counter-proposals;

The CFTC has clarified its top 5 enforcement priorities: “crack down” on prediction market insider trading and market manipulation;

Opinions and Statements

Trump: Negotiations made major progress; Trump threatens to target Iran’s energy facilities—oil prices keep rising, and U.S. stock index futures fall; Iran’s president: We’re prepared to end the war, but want assurances; Iran will charge tolls to ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz;

Trump: Bitcoin has an important position; the U.S. needs to stay ahead;

10x: Under the U.S.-Iran conflict, Bitcoin’s “safe-haven myth” fails—ETF flows reshape the pricing logic;

Trader Eugene: Exited after stopping loss; plans to reduce trading frequency;

Institutions, Big Companies, and Top Projects

SpaceX is expected to list in June. The IPO target valuation is over $2 trillion, and it plans to raise up to $75 billion; OpenAI completed $122 billion in fundraising, valuing it at $852 billion;

Bitfarms plans to sell off all Bitcoin on its balance sheet and fully pivot to AI infrastructure;

Aster adjusts its tokenomics structure and sharply reduces the monthly unlock amount;

edgeX airdrop—cold shower;

MagicEden: The wallet will be delisted tomorrow and move into export-only mode;

Dmail Network will gradually shut down starting May 15; users must export their emails before then;

Security

Drift Protocol was attacked, with losses of at least $200 million (details).

Link to the “Weekly Editor’s Picks” series attached. See you next time~