Wintermute: The accumulated energy in the crypto market has not yet reached a consensus, and the direction will be determined by the trigger point.

MeNews · 2026-03-31T13:20:46+00:00

Wintermute indicates that the easing window is coming to an end, and the risk asset environment remains severe. Bitcoin struggles to stay above $70,000. If oil prices continue to rise further, it could lead to Bitcoin dropping to $60,000 or lower; conversely, if the situation improves, a rebound to the $70,000 to $74,000 range is possible. Market volatility will far exceed current pricing.

MeNews

2026-03-31 13:20:46

Abstract generation in progress

ME News reports that on March 31 (UTC+8), Wintermute stated that the four-week easing window is about to end, while the issues remain unresolved. Brent crude oil prices are above $112, and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, with the probability of rate hikes continuing to rise. The macro risk asset ceiling is lower than it was a month ago, making it difficult for Bitcoin to sustain above $70,000. The March 27 expiration not only cleared $14 billion in risk exposure but also eliminated delta-hedging fund flows that had previously caused spot prices to fluctuate around key strike prices. Without this passive buy/sell support structure, the market becomes more susceptible to one-sided moves as capital flows decrease. Additionally, there are negative ETF flows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, and although perpetual contract leverage remains high, the low volatility cycle shows no clear direction. Such a market setup will not evolve gradually but is likely to break out suddenly.

If credible progress is made diplomatically and oil prices fall back to around $100, shorts will face the risk of forced liquidation, and Bitcoin could rebound to the $70,000 to $74,000 range. If the easing persists, the resistance at $74,000 may be tested. Conversely, if tensions escalate further and oil prices rise to $120, Bitcoin could fall just above $60,000; if the cycle behaves similarly, it could even drop into the $50,000 to $55,000 range. More importantly, the directional issue here is secondary compared to the market structure itself. Perpetual contract leverage remains high, the funding rate is fluctuating within the narrowest range on record, and volatility is compressing. Regardless of which way catalysts push the market, the structure indicates that the resulting volatility will far exceed what is currently reflected in spot, perpetual, and options prices. (Source: Foresight News)

BTC2.73%

ETH4.12%

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