In-Depth Tracking: Vitalik Buterin's 16,384 ETH Sale Progress Reaches 94%, Full Analysis of Remaining Selling Pressure and Market Impact

February 26, 2026, on-chain data monitoring agency Onchain Lens revealed that 16,384 ETH related to Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin’s address has completed 94% of its sale plan, with less than ten million dollars remaining in sell pressure. This transparent asset restructuring, initiated earlier this year, not only captures market attention but also serves as a key example for observing behavior of industry leaders and market absorption capacity. This article will analyze from multiple dimensions—on-chain data, public opinion divergence, industry impact—to restore the full picture and project future developments.

Near-Completion of “Transparent Sell-Off”: Vitalik’s On-Chain Commitment About to Be Fulfilled

On February 26, 2026, the crypto market once again focused on Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin’s related address. According to data from on-chain analysis platform Onchain Lens, the previously disclosed plan to sell 16,384 ETH is nearing completion. Since its initiation on February 2, the address has sold a total of 15,479 ETH, about 94% of the plan, cashing out approximately $30.94 million, with an average transaction price of $1,999. Currently, only 905 ETH remain unsold, and market expectations are that this remaining amount will be cleared within hours.

This event is not an unexpected market dump but a planned asset restructuring announced two months ago with a clear purpose. Its transparency and planning provide a classic case for observing “key opinion leader (KOL) large holdings changes” and “market price absorption capacity.”

Data and Structural Analysis: On-Chain Footprints and Execution Details

Timeline and Transaction Scale

The sale plan started around January 2026. Vitalik publicly announced allocating 16,384 ETH (worth about $45 million at the time) from his personal holdings to fund long-term development of privacy tech, open hardware, and verifiable security software systems. On-chain records show that actual selling began on February 2 and has continued for nearly a month until February 26, with a total of 15,479 ETH sold.

According to Arkham Intelligence, the wallet associated with Vitalik held about 241,000 ETH in early February. By February 25, this balance had decreased to approximately 224,000 ETH, with a net outflow of about 17,000 ETH during this period. This indicates that the 16,384 ETH plan is just part of Vitalik’s recent asset reallocation; his main wallet still holds a large amount of ETH, with no systematic liquidation.

Execution Strategy: Why Doesn’t the Market Feel “Shaken”?

A notable detail is the choice of trading execution tools. Vitalik did not conduct one or several large sell orders on centralized exchanges but instead used the decentralized trading aggregator CoW Protocol for most transactions. This protocol’s core mechanism is to find on-chain liquidity and batch orders, executing via “Coincidence of Wants” (CoW) or splitting into multiple small trades.

Factually, this batch, small-scale, DEX-aggregated execution approach is a typical “low market impact” strategy. It broke down the 15,479 ETH sell pressure over nearly a month, with daily outflows being a tiny fraction compared to ETH’s average daily trading volume of hundreds of billions of dollars.

Supporting data: As of February 25, 2026, Ethereum’s price was $2,063.73, with a 24-hour trading volume of $534.97 million, according to Gate.io data. Vitalik’s daily sell amount (~$1 million) accounts for only about 0.18% of that day’s trading volume. This explains why his sell-off did not trigger significant market volatility.

Public Opinion Analysis: From “Faith Collapse” to “Asset Rebalancing”

Market interpretations of Vitalik’s selling behavior have evolved from emotional to rational.

Mainstream Views

• Tech Funding Argument: Repeatedly emphasized by Vitalik himself and mainstream media. The proceeds from this sale are intended to support privacy, open-source projects, and ecosystem development, representing long-term positive investment. Especially after Ethereum Foundation announced entering a “moderate contraction” phase, Vitalik’s move is seen as a personal effort to fill funding gaps.
• Asset Rebalancing: As a founder, Vitalik’s personal assets are highly concentrated in ETH. Diversifying some of his wealth into fiat or other real-world assets is a routine wealth management and risk control measure, not necessarily a bearish signal on the project.

Controversies and Concerns

Despite clear motives, in a bear market cycle, large on-chain transfers by major holders are often exaggerated. Since February, ETH has fallen about 37%, briefly dropping below $1,900. Under this context, Vitalik’s continuous selling objectively increased sell-side supply, intensifying short-term pessimism and liquidity tension.

Reality vs. Narrative: Boundaries of Facts and Market Interpretations

When analyzing this event, it’s crucial to distinguish verified facts from market narratives.

Verified Facts (On-Chain)

• Timeline: From February 2, 2026, to present.
• Quantity: 15,479 ETH sold.
• Total value: approximately $30.94 million, at an average price of $1,999.
• Method: Batch execution via CoW Protocol.
• Declaration: Vitalik announced in January that funds would be used to support privacy, open hardware, and other projects.

Market Interpretations

• View A: “All negative news exhausted.” Once the remaining 905 ETH are sold in the next few hours, this planned sell-off will be fully completed, removing the certainty of sell pressure and potentially restoring market sentiment.
• View B: In a deep bear market, any new sell pressure is a burden. Although the amount is small, its symbolic significance may suppress bottom-fishing enthusiasm and prolong the market’s bottoming process.

Speculative Logic

The core of speculation lies in the ultimate destination of the funds. If the $30.94 million is reinvested into the ecosystem via funding, donations, or investments over the coming months, some of these funds will inevitably be used by developers for operational costs (possibly converted into stablecoins or fiat), creating secondary sell pressure. However, this process is slow and dispersed, with a much smaller impact than the initial concentrated sale phase.

Industry Impact: Disentangling Individual Actions from Market Mechanisms

Vitalik’s sale plan nearing completion offers an important case study: how markets absorb known, structural individual sell pressure.

• Market Maturity: Price data shows that the market did not panic or crash during this month-long sale. This indicates that current crypto market depth and diversity can absorb daily outflows of millions of dollars, provided information is transparent and expectations are clear, demonstrating self-regulation capacity.
• De-heroization of Founder Behavior: This event reinforces the understanding that a founder’s wallet is not a “weather vane” for project trends. Vitalik’s sales are driven by clear, non-speculative logic (funding development), helping markets move away from simplistic “founder buy/sell = bullish/bearish signals” interpretations toward focusing on fundamentals and macro liquidity.
• Transparency as a Double-Edged Sword: On-chain transparency allows real-time tracking of whale movements, enabling markets to digest expectations early. But it also means that large transfers without background explanations can trigger unnecessary FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) on social media. Vitalik’s proactive disclosure of fund use effectively reduces negative impacts caused by information asymmetry.

Multi-Scenario Evolution Projections

Based on the current 94% completion, future market movements will revolve around the remaining sell pressure and subsequent fund flows.

Scenario 1: Certainty Realized, Market Sentiment Recovers (Higher Probability)

The remaining 905 ETH (~$1.86 million) will be sold within hours. With this, the planned sell-off that lasted nearly a month will be fully concluded. Market focus will shift to Ethereum’s staking yield (~2.8%), ecosystem development, and macro environment. A short-term vacuum of sell pressure may provide a technical rebound window.

Scenario 2: Unexpected Over-Sell, Causing Short-Term Volatility (Lower Probability)

If after the remaining ETH are sold, the address continues to show large, unplanned outflows, it could reignite market concerns. However, based on historical data and current statements, this scenario lacks sufficient basis.

Scenario 3: Funds Re-enter Ecosystem, Effects Materialize (Mid-Term Projection)

Over the next 3-6 months, as the projects funded by Vitalik’s commitments are gradually implemented, the $30.94 million will translate into developer activity and new applications. If these projects lead to breakthroughs in privacy, security, and other areas, the current “sell pressure” could evolve into “ecosystem value,” creating a positive feedback loop.

Conclusion

As the remaining 905 ETH approaches full sale, Vitalik’s planned, transparent sell-off enters its final phase. The pre-disclosure and low-impact execution strategy prevented this multi-million-dollar move from causing market turmoil, reflecting the increasing maturity of the crypto market and providing a reference for similar future events. Ultimately, market attention will shift from individual actions to fundamentals—Ethereum’s technological progress, staking yields, and macro liquidity—being the key variables influencing long-term price trends. Whether the funded privacy and open-source projects can succeed will ultimately determine if this “sell pressure” transforms into “ecosystem value.”