Trading Time: AI Panic Escalates Ahead of CPI, Bitcoin Fluctuates and Bottoms Out, Difficult to Reproduce "Spring Festival Market"

Daily market highlights and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The current macro market is experiencing a profound confidence crisis triggered by AI, with the narrative shifting from “AI frenzy” to “AI panic.” Investors are no longer focused on who will benefit but are instead fearful of which industries will be disrupted and replaced. On Thursday, financial markets experienced a broad sell-off, with US stock market capitalization evaporating by $1 trillion. Cisco plummeted 12% after issuing weak profit margin guidance. The Nasdaq dropped over 2%, the S&P 500 declined 1.57% and fell below its 50-day moving average, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 50,000 points. The tech giants all declined, with Apple down over 5%, losing about $202 billion in market value in a single day, and Amazon, after eight consecutive days of decline, officially entered a technical bear market, down 21.4% from its high. Industry insiders expect Nvidia’s earnings report on February 25 to be a key catalyst in the AI sector.

The “survival anxiety” brought by AI is spreading from software stocks to broader industries. After SaaS, insurance, and wealth management, commercial real estate and logistics are the latest victims. CBRE and JLL fell over 25% in two days, with their stock prices dropping more than 25% cumulatively, while logistics giant CH Robinson plunged 14.5%. Investors worry that AI automation will compress commissions and replace parts of their business.

This panic has triggered liquidity runs, causing safe-haven assets like gold and silver to suffer as well. Spot gold briefly plunged over $200 intraday, closing down more than 3% and falling below $5,000. Silver tumbled about 11% to around $75. Funds flowed into US Treasuries seeking safety, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling back to around 4.100%. Additionally, today is the last trading day before the Lunar New Year holiday in the US stock market. Market focus is on the upcoming CPI data release tonight, expected at 2.5%, to seek clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path amid turbulence. Currently, the market broadly expects rate cuts only in July.

Bitcoin is struggling within the $60,000 to $72,000 range, constrained by heavy supply pressure from above at $82,000 to $97,000. On-chain analysis firm Glassnode notes that the market is caught between the “realized market value” at about $79,200 and the “realized price” at around $55,000, suggesting a prolonged consolidation unless an extreme catalyst appears. FLAME LABS further analyzes that the shutdown price for S19 miners is between $75,000 and $85,000, and for S21 miners between $69,000 and $74,000. The $52,000 to $58,000 zone, which includes the 200-week moving average and miner shutdown price support, forms a highly confident structural bottom, despite the S23 model’s physical bottom at $44,000. Analysts like Tony Research and Titan of Crypto predict the bottom may occur in Q4 2026 or October, with target prices of $40,000–$50,000. Rekt Capital warns that failure to reclaim the 200-week EMA (around $68,300) could accelerate bearish momentum, while William Clemente and Frank A. Fetter believe the Mayer Multiple indicates current levels are in a historic buy zone. Astronomer and Altcoin Sherpa focus on the support at $60,000–$65,000.

Ethereum shows relative weakness, unable to hold above $2,000, with a low of $1,745. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart states ETH ETF holders are in a worse position than Bitcoin holders, with current prices well below the average cost basis of about $3,500. Technical analyst Man of Bitcoin sees ETH in a downward wave B, with key support at $1,832; a break below could target $1,600. Lennaert Snyder also holds a bearish view, with a target of $1,866. StefanB is more pessimistic, predicting this decline is too sharp for a V-shaped reversal, with a bottom possibly in April next year at $1,006–$1,333. Not all analysts are bearish; Rod suggests the price is forming a bullish descending wedge pattern, with a short-term target of $2,250. Cointelegraph analysts believe institutional demand and on-chain resilience could support a rebound to $2,400.

Solana also faces significant pressure. Analysts like Fade and Altcoin Sherpa warn it is in the late cycle correction phase; a break below $60 could lead to further declines toward $50 or lower. Regarding the entire altcoin market, analyst Inmortal believes that due to extreme capital dispersion, 99% of altcoins may never reach new all-time highs again. For Mene coin, GEM DETECTER data shows that among 180,000 traders on PumpFun last month, 99% made less than $500 profit, and 42% are in loss. Meanwhile, Coinbase, a market indicator, reported that despite a 156% increase in full-year trading volume, high operating expenses and investment losses led to a net loss of $667 million. Its CEO Brian Armstrong has sold over $550 million worth of Coinbase stock in the past nine months, further undermining market confidence.

2. Key Data (as of February 13, 13:00 HKT)

(Source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $66,256 (YTD -24.33%), spot trading volume: $46.81 billion
• Ethereum: $1,933 (YTD -34.83%), spot trading volume: $19.09 billion
• Fear & Greed Index: 9 (Extreme Fear)
• Average GAS: BTC: 10.06 sat/vB, ETH: 0.35 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 58.9%, ETH 10.5%
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, BERA, ME, ETH
• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 48.95% / 51.05%
• Sector performance: Overall crypto market down, GameFi, Meme, AI sectors all down over 2%

24-hour liquidation data: total 83,137 traders liquidated globally, with a total of $204 million. Liquidations include $83.04 million in BTC, $37.42 million in ETH, and $9.73 million in SOL.

3. ETF Flows (as of February 12)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$410 million
• Ethereum ETF: -$113 million
• SOL ETF: +$2.7041 million

4. Today’s Preview

• US Department of Labor: Non-farm payrolls to be released on February 11; CPI data postponed to February 13
• Binance will delist ACA, CHESS, DATA, DF, GHST, NKN spot trading pairs on February 13
• FTX: Next distribution registration date is February 14; disputed claims reserve reduced by $2.2 billion for distribution
• Caixin: 60,000 Bitcoin assets related to Qi Zhiming’s money laundering case are at an impasse; hearing scheduled for February 16
• US January CPI YoY: previous 2.7%, expected 2.5% (February 13, 21:30)
• HKEX, Korea, US, Vietnam and other exchanges will be closed during Lunar New Year (February 16)

Top 100 market cap gainers today: River +17.2%, Pi Network +4%, POL (formerly MATIC) +3.8%, Toncoin +3.7%, Sei +3.5%.

5. Hot News

• Coinbase announces additional $39 million worth of Bitcoin purchase
• Aave Labs proposal to transfer 100% protocol revenue to DAO in exchange for operational funds
• Coinbase Q4 earnings: net loss $667 million, revenue down 20%
• Lighter and Circle reach USDC deposit yield sharing agreement
• Government of Bhutan sends 100 BTC to QCP Capital, worth $6.77 million
• Coinbase CEO has sold about $550 million worth of Coinbase stock in the past year
• Binance confirms SAFU fund completed purchase of the last 4,545 BTC, total holdings now 15,000 BTC
• Ethereum holdings report: over 60% of total supply stored in ETH2 deposit contract; Rain Lohmus is the largest individual holder
• Alameda bankruptcy management distributes over $15 million in SOL to creditors