What Is Value at Risk (VaR)? Can It Tell Us How Much an Account Might Lose?

In cryptocurrency trading, many people calculate returns, but few seriously estimate how much their accounts could lose under adverse market conditions. Value at Risk (VaR) is a common risk measurement tool that helps us understand potential losses from a probability perspective.

First, what exactly is VaR?

VaR is typically used to estimate the potential loss threshold for a specific position over a given time horizon and at a given confidence level. For example, a one-day 95% VaR of 1,000 USDT for an account means

📊 Crypto Daily | Nov 9 Morning: $850 million wiped out overnight! BTC crashes below 74,000 to a new low since August, 140,000 liquidated—three tankers catch fire in Hormuz, and PoR is due today with no sign of it!

Guys, this weekend’s hit was harsher than expected: BTC plunged below 74,000 on Sunday night, hitting a low of 73,708 (a new low since August), and is now at 74,274, down nearly 2%. The 75,000 level is completely lost. This wasn’t just a leveraged long squeeze—three tankers exploded and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz in a single day, and Qeshm Island was attacked by US forces.

$LYN A long opportunity is taking shape.
Entry range: 0.02011 – 0.02056 Target: 0.02148 – 0.02240 Defense level: 0.01931
Technically, the RSI has fallen into deeply oversold territory, while the Delta indicator is showing positive divergence. Together, these two signals usually point to a decent chance of a short-term rebound.
But let’s be clear: the broader trend is still dominated by bears. The 0.02039 support level is critical—a break below it could trigger a cascade of liquidations.
Don’t get carried away. Position sizing always comes first; trade according to what your account can handle

What Is Value at Risk (VaR)? Can It Tell Us How Much Our Account Might Lose?

In cryptocurrency trading, many people calculate returns but rarely make a serious estimate of how much their accounts could lose under adverse market conditions. Value at Risk (VaR) is a common risk measurement tool that can help us understand potential losses in probabilistic terms.

First, what exactly is VaR?

VaR is typically used to estimate the potential loss threshold for a specific position over a given time horizon and at a given confidence level. For example, a one-day 95% VaR of 1,000 USDT for an account

Bitcoin is at 74,100 now, after hitting a low of 73,980 this afternoon—just shy of breaking below 74,000.
It’s been falling for five straight weeks, with not a single bullish weekly candle. The Nasdaq fell 3.4% last week, led lower by AI chip stocks, and Bitcoin followed U.S. stocks. Until U.S. stocks stop falling, Bitcoin won’t stop either.
Bad news has also been piling up this weekend. Binance was hacked, Democrats won the midterm elections, Huang’s affair made headlines, and interest rates are set to rise again next month. Right now, money just wants to flow out, and nobody’s willing to buy

#MU# Micron's support level of 669.3 mentioned on November 5 has been reached. It found support and saw a small-scale rebound. Can the rebound extend? Monitoring points shared in image 2. ​​​$MU ‌

Nvidia's CEO admitted an affair on Sunday, and $NVDA dropped 4.2% before Wall Street even opened.

Guys, Jensen Huang doesn't build the chips. Thousands of engineers do. The demand for AI compute stays the same whatever happens to one man's reputation.

BUT, and this is a HUGE but... He is the face of NVIDIA.

The keynotes, the leather jacket, the deals with world leaders. Steve Jobs never wrote the iPhone's code, but Apple still moved every time he did, right?

That being said... still BULLISH.

ETH, 71 points! Short from 2156 to 2084, banking about 13,500.

Entered near 2156 and gave the take-profit level in advance. In the afternoon, price fell to around 2085, and I reminded everyone to take profit in full. This trade basically played out as planned.

In this kind of market, what you fear most isn’t getting one call wrong; it’s when the trend has clearly emerged, yet you’re still hesitating and trying to squeeze out the last leg.

When the directional call is right, execution must follow. Be decisive when it’s time to act, and don’t get greedy when it’s time to take profit.

My styl

ETH | Shorting was flagged in advance at 2145; now at 2116! The rebound-short strategy has been validated once again!

ETH plan published in advance today:

Aggressive short: around 2145

Conservative short: 2160–2180

Stop-loss: 2200

First target: 2120

Second target: 2080

ETH is now around 2116, already below the first target of 2120, and continuing toward the second target of 2080.

Why not rush to buy the dip at the time?

ETH saw a high-volume drop to around 2050 in the early hours, with only a limited rebound; at the same time, the US-Iran military standoff and repricing of global risk

#USCPIDataIncoming
#美国10月CPI即将公布 #每周来晒
: Why the Upcoming US Inflation Report Could Shape the Future of Crypto Markets
The financial world is closely watching the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, as this important economic indicator could have a significant impact on global financial markets, investor sentiment, and cryptocurrency prices. Inflation remains one of the most important factors influencing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, making the upcoming CPI data particularly important for traders and long-term investors.

The Consumer Price Index measures changes in the p

Nvidia’s biggest buyer in Southeast Asia dragged Jensen Huang into an intelligence scandal.
On 11-03, I wrote about HBM smuggling and said every generation has its own gold rush.
This time, the gold rush led to Jensen Huang’s inner circle.
Megaspeed was spun off from gaming company 7Road in 2023; Century Huatong is a 7Road shareholder, with about a 10% stake.
Its early managing director was Alice Huang (Huang Le).
Her husband was also jailed for smuggling Nvidia graphics cards.
At a Taipei drinking party in 2024, she said, “I bet I can get Jensen to come,” and Jensen Huang showed up.
The New Y

#NvidiaCEOUnderInvestigation $NVDA #ShareWeekly
First, this post is about market risk, not anyone’s private life. The question for a stock is whether a personal story can turn into a governance, regulatory or valuation story. Here is how I separate what we know from what we don’t.

What is confirmed

On Sunday, Jensen Huang wrote to employees, apologized to his family and said he was unfaithful to his wife. The board announced an independent investigation, run by independent directors with outside counsel. The board said it has no reason to believe national security or company secrets were co

$ETH $15,000 IN THE NEXT BULL RUN?
ETHEREUM Is Building A Massive Bullish Structure On The 2W Chart.
3 Major Resistance Tests + Rising Support + Strong Accumulation Zone.
Targets: $3,500 → $5,000 → $10,000 → $15,000
A Multi-Year Ethereum Breakout Could Be Brewing. 🚀

Suspected drone attack affects nearly 2,800 megawatts of power generation capacity?
The fragility of this infrastructure is outrageous. With Khor Mor offline, power supply in parts of Erbil, Duhok, and Zakho has been affected.
At 23:00 local time on November 8, Dana Gas said the Khor Mor facility was suspected of being hit by a drone and catching fire. The fire was extinguished and no one was injured, but gas production remains suspended.
Natural gas supplies were cut off, and regional power plants went silent as well. Nearly 2,800 megawatts of power generation capacity were affected, and resi

$NVDA
Jensen being punished for having an affair with a chinese spy.
We are being blessed with cheap equity. If price hits 176, forward P/E is 12-15😅.

Tonight at 8, join the official livestream @Gate Live 华语 to discuss topics related to Nvidia's earnings preview $NVDA

Machi Big Brother currently has only 750 $ETH long positions left, worth about $1.58 million, at 25x cross margin, with an entry price of $2138 and a liquidation price of $2086... The market was still ruthless last night and liquidated him again. $CORE If you can keep doing the opposite like this, you’re sure to make a fortune.
#美国10月CPI即将公布

🚨 #bitcoin is setting the same trap as in 2018 and 2022.
and i think the next move could make millionaires.
look at this chart.
2018: crash → recovery → new high.
2022: crash → recovery → new high.
2026: crash → recovery → new high?
different years. same story.
first, bitcoin crashes.
normal traders panic.
everyone says crypto is dead.
then selling slowly stops.
$BTC starts to recover slowly.
but nobody believes it.
"just a fake pump."
then bitcoin breaks the resistance.