US–Iran sees a rapid reversal—bulls are weak, so be cautious about chasing shorts! 6.29 BTC & ETH thoughts
The US–Iran ceasefire has only been in effect for eleven days, yet it is already in danger because the two sides have resumed fighting and there are threats about restarting the war—“completing the mission,” by that “yellow-haired” figure. Today brings yet another big reversal: both sides have agreed to a ceasefire and are set to meet in the Qatari capital on Tuesday to resolve the dispute caused by the Strait of Hormuz. Last Friday, the long setup for BTC was spot on and hit accurately.

Trading days can be a bit boring sometimes.

Futures turned green. S&P +43, Nasdaq +262, Dow +184.
After two weeks of heavy selling, we finally see some signs of a rebound.
But to be honest, this little bit of green on Monday morning doesn't mean much.
Today is a month-end and quarter-end rebalancing day, and institutions shifting positions can produce many fake moves.
Last week, the Nasdaq 100 lost over a trillion in market cap, and the Mag7 collectively dropped $2.8T in June — not something a one-day rebound can fix.
Concentrix reports earnings after the bell tonight, with Wall Street expecting EPS of $2.63. This company has a signific

This morning's Bitcoin idea
Operation:
Short near 600-605
Target 592-580
Set stop-loss
For longs, you can try a light position near 58000
Stop-loss 57200, target 59500/60500
Today, Bitcoin's downward trend is clear, the Bollinger Bands are continuously pointing down, and the current rebound is only a weak repair, not reversing the bearish pattern. Selling pressure is concentrated above, indicators remain in a bearish state, the support at the previous low is weakening, and the probability of a downward breakout is higher. The overall approach is still to short at highs. $BTC #0成本拿2股SK海力士

#USMayPCEInflationRisesTo4.1%HighestIn3Years
The May 2026 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, accelerated to 4.1% year-over-year, rising from 3.8% in April and marking its highest level in nearly three years. Monthly headline PCE increased 0.4%, while Core PCE climbed to 3.4% YoY from 3.3%, with a 0.3% monthly increase. The report immediately reshaped market expectations, as investors priced in a longer period of restrictive monetary policy, sending shockwaves across global financial markets.
A 4.1% PCE inflation reading i

US stocks, Korean stocks, Japanese stocks, China A-shares, and crypto — the advantage of cross-market multi-asset allocation is that when one market is getting beaten down, other markets may be feasting🍖, so psychologically it's not as painful😣.
At present, A-shares have a relatively weaker correlation with the others, and the scale of proprietary funds is large, so once there's a hot topic, the market can rally on its own. For example, today because of the news about ChangXin Memory Technologies' huge IPO, upstream stocks surged, dragging along a bunch of stocks and ETFs.
The worst hit is t

A few days ago, it was still pretending to be strong, but today it directly gave the result! 🔥📉 Opening the chart in the morning, $IP this short squeeze was executed very cleanly; the more it grinded earlier, the weaker it became, and once it loosened, it gave the answer directly.
When I checked the IP in the early morning a few days ago, the focus was not on whether it could still go up, but on whether there would be sustained buying after it went up. The result was very clear: weak rebound, insufficient support, and it softened once pressure came from above, so at that time I advised not

Securitize expects roughly $400M on its upcoming SPAC-style debut after under 30% of shareholders in the acquisition vehicle redeem—clear short-term liquidity ahead of public listing. $SERCX?

This one comes out, the bears finally stop pretending! 📉🔥
A few days ago in the early morning $ADA was still testing repeatedly above, many people saw it not dropping and wanted to go long, but I was more cautious at the time, because each rally fell short, and support was clearly insufficient.
The last look before bed, I saw that ADA still couldn't take out the resistance above, volume didn't cooperate either, and the trap for longs was getting heavier, so I suggested not to chase the rally, wait for it to stall and then look for short opportunities 👀🎯
The market gave the answer, from 0.

On June 29, Bitcoin spot ETFs have been seeing outflows nonstop recently, and it has been stuck around 58,000. It feels like the bottom of a daily chart. But the director says that there isn’t even a bottom pattern forming right now—could it be possible that it will continue to range and then move downward? 🟢 Recently, a number of students have been privately messaging the director asking to buy the dip. The diamond top on the S&P 500 hasn’t “ripened” yet; we’ll see whether 7290 can break down. If it breaks, then a top correction will begin. Will Bitcoin also break this 58,000? 🟢 Earlier, wh

A few days ago, it was still pretending to be strong, and today it was directly suppressed by the shorts! 📉😎 The last look before bed at $DOT , it was still fluctuating at high levels. The market looked lively, but I didn't feel like chasing at all.
While everyone was still watching, I focused on the details of DOT: every upward push was just short of momentum, volume wasn't following, and as soon as sell pressure appeared near the resistance level, it softened. Seeing this, I judged that the upside couldn't hold, and directly followed the bearish approach, opening a short near 1.258 👀🎯
No

BTC looks to be shaping a bullish RSI divergence, sparking chatter about a potential bottom this cycle, even as some warn new lows could still come. $BTC

Today’s ETH morning thoughts
Operation:
Short near the 1575–1585 rebound area.
Defend at 1595; target 1530–1510.
After ETH surged and then pulled back, it entered a weak, grinding downtrend. In each cycle, the rebound height keeps narrowing. The long side’s counter-pull is still unable to hold above the Bollinger middle band. The upper prior trading range has heavy trapped-sell pressure. Rebound momentum keeps weakening step by step. Price repeatedly probes the previous low, continuously wearing down the effectiveness of support. Meanwhile, the momentum for a downside breakdown continues to bu

JUST IN: Yilihua predicts July–August as Bitcoin’s final major dip window, citing wave theory and market drivers like US stocks and MicroStrategy. If accurate, the bottom could form this period. $BTC

Arthur Hayes just loaded up ~$2.2M in SYN (6.16M tokens) via FlowDesk and pitched Hypercall as a potential challenger to Deribit. Could signal rising insider sentiment and options activity around Hyperliquid. $SYN $Hypercall

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【$SOL Signal】Long 1H MACD Bullish Expansion + Normal Funding Rate
$SOL RSI(1H) 50.91, broke previous low then V-recovered to 71.38, 4H Bollinger middle band at 71.09 provides support. 1H MACD histogram has three consecutive bars expanding on the positive side, with volume recovering simultaneously. Order book depth bid/ask ratio 0.97, though not absolutely dominant, selling pressure is not accelerating. Funding rate 0.0053%, neutral zone, no overheating signal. Current price is at the intersection of EMA20(1H) and EMA50, trading activity is recovering.
🎯Direction: Long
⚡Entry/Limit: 71.1758 –

BEL saw a sharp drop from 0.1285 to 0.1071, with 24-hour trading volume shrinking to 18.50 million; the 15% gain level that traders chased at the highs is gone.
Don’t rush to blame the whales—look at the U.S. stock market next door. In Tuesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes, those people directly cut “rate cuts this year” down to “monitoring a few quarters.” CME interest rate futures show the probability of a June rate cut fell from 58% straight down to 34%. On Wednesday, ADP employment came in above expectations at 184.0K; the U.S. dollar index jumped to 104.2, and the 10-year Treasury y