This short position was able to profit from the drop; the key was not rushing in after seeing the sell-off, but noticing earlier during the spike-and-retrace that the buy support above was getting weaker and weaker. The price stayed stuck at the high level for a long time. Every time it tried to push up, it was pushed back down. Honestly, this kind of order book is really grinding, but it also gave me enough time to wait for the right opportunity.

I confirmed the short-side momentum around 1.0030. During the process, I also encountered a few wicks. A brief rebound in the short term once made me a bit nervous. The good thing was that I didn’t get off too quickly just because of a bit of volatility. After the selling pressure truly released, the price kept moving down to 0.6934. In the end, this trade returned +1486.51%.

After this wave of decline, I became even more convinced by the bearish logic. It wasn’t because it fell that I turned bearish; rather, the problems—insufficient support at the highs, the spike-and-retrace, and weak follow-through on rebounds—had been there all along. In crypto, the hardest part is never making the call; it’s whether you can still hold on after you’re right.

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