#流动性挖矿与质押 After reading this analysis about the Shanzhai Season, many points hit the nail on the head. I've been in this market long enough to see too many people become envious of Bitcoin's gains, rushing to go all-in on altcoins, only to be completely harvested.

The logic this time isn't fundamentally different from before, but the form has changed. In 2017, we only needed to wait for the "Ethereum killer" story to make money; back then, the narrative around altcoins was very unified. Now? AI coins, DePIN, RWA, meme coins—more than forty different stories are competing for capital's attention simultaneously. Retail investors have more choices, but risks are also thoroughly diversified.

The most painful part is the logic of liquidity layering—money from spot ETFs will only stay in BTC and ETH. Derivative leverage can push prices higher but doesn't necessarily mean touching altcoins. Only retail gamblers' hot money will truly flow into risky assets. In other words, a 20% rise in Bitcoin doesn't mean altcoins will follow; this isn't a market structure issue, but the underlying logic of capital operation.

What I care more about now are those signals—has the true downtrend of BTC.D been confirmed? Has ETH/BTC created higher highs? Is the supply of stablecoins really increasing? I've seen too many false rallies before, with a few trash coins skyrocketing, while truly blue-chip altcoins remain unmoved. That's not rotation; that's retail gambling.

Shanzhai Season will come, but not on your timetable. I keep repeating this in my mind. Maybe this time, patience will be more, and greed less.