A day in the crypto world is like a year in the human world—this saying's deeper meaning goes far beyond market fluctuations; it speaks more about the torment of the mindset.

I once watched a friend hold a position on SOL for two weeks before giving up, only to see it surge 120% afterward. Similar stories play out repeatedly with DOGE, ETH, and others. Too many people endure the test of a sharp decline, only to fall just before the crucial main upward wave. After years of navigating the crypto space, I increasingly understand one principle: the secret to making money isn't about how frequently you trade, but whether you can read the "rhythm" of the mid-term trend.

Today, I want to share a few lessons learned with real money, hoping to help you avoid missing your own market opportunities next time.

**Understanding Bitcoin's cycle is equivalent to mastering the key to altcoins' fate**

There is a hard rule in the crypto world: Bitcoin sets the stage, altcoins perform the show. If you don't even understand where BTC currently stands, trading altcoins is basically just gambling.

Based on observations, Bitcoin's big rallies typically go through four stages: main upward wave → high-level consolidation → downward correction → low-level consolidation. Most retail investors' losing scripts are caught in this cycle—always driven by FOMO at the end of the main upward wave, then selling in the midst of consolidation and decline.

How to judge? I mainly watch for two signals:

One is the breakthrough of key resistance levels. Once Bitcoin breaks through important resistance (like the previous $105,000), on-chain activity and stablecoin market cap indicators will collectively surge, which usually signals the start of the main upward wave. Conversely, if it falls below key support (like $102,000), with trading volume shrinking and market enthusiasm waning, the correction phase has basically begun.

Mastering these two points can help you avoid the most common mistake—always catching the last wave.