Bitcoin enters 2026, and this round of market movement is no longer the same rebound pattern seen at the beginning of previous cycles.

From a technical perspective, there are indeed some signals worth being optimistic about, but when looking at the larger structural environment, the conditions for a sustained bull market seem less sufficient. Historical experience tells us that when prices break below key support levels like the annual moving average, combined with insufficient trading volume and weak capital inflows, the cycle can easily shift into a more difficult phase.

On-chain data confirms this judgment. Large holders are gradually reducing their holdings in an orderly manner, and their selling pressure is enough to offset retail buying demand, resulting in the market falling into a long-term oscillating top pattern. This is not capitulation selling, nor the frantic top of a bubble, but a state of stalemate.

What’s more painful is that both realized market cap and new address growth data point to the same conclusion: **New money is not coming in, and new players are not very active**. This means that the current market lacks the driving force of fresh capital, and the growth potential of the market has been significantly compressed.

In other words, the bear market characteristics have not completely disappeared, and the main upward wave of a bull market has not truly started. Currently, it is more about the tug-of-war and testing among various forces, with structural pressures still present.