#美股圣诞行情开启 The core focus of the current market has shifted from external macro events to changes within the market structure. This Friday will see the annual large-scale options expiration, with approximately 300,000 BTC options (notional value of about $23.7 billion) expiring. Among them, the strike prices of $85,000 (put options) and $100,000 (call options) are the most concentrated. This may trigger Gamma effects around the expiration date, intensifying local volatility and anchoring the price near key levels.

Holiday liquidity trap: This is the most critical variable at present. The departure of European and American institutional investors has led to extremely shallow market depth. Very low liquidity means that any slightly larger buy or sell order could cause sharp and discontinuous price swings, amplifying short-term risks.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin typically experiences 5%-7% volatility during Christmas week, often related to options expirations in low-liquidity environments!

Summary and Outlook
The market is currently in a complex phase characterized by “weak technicals,” “liquidity exhaustion,” and “annual event disturbances” stacking together. The current narrow-range oscillation is not a sign of a stable trend but rather a temporary “dormancy” of bullish and bearish momentum during the holiday period. The likely continuation is weak-range consolidation, with Bitcoin’s core trading range expected between 86,000-89,000 and Ethereum between 2,880-3,050. Special attention should be paid to the potential for sharp two-way volatility on Thursday and Friday due to options expiration and liquidity drying up. The market’s true directional decision will unfold in the first week of 2026, when institutional funds return, ETF capital flow data recovers, and macro policy expectations for the new year come into play. Key focus will be whether Bitcoin can regain and hold above $89,000 and push toward $90,000, and whether Ethereum can effectively recover the 3,050 level (20-day moving average) and return above 3,000.

In the current “holiday mode,” the primary task is risk management rather than profit pursuit. Use key levels as anchors: adopt a strict range trading mindset. Look for rebounds near support levels (BTC: 86,000-86,500; ETH: 2,900-2,880) and expect pullbacks near resistance levels (BTC: 88,000-88,500; ETH: 3,000-3,050). Set strict stop-loss orders to prevent amplified volatility risks amid holiday liquidity contraction.
Beneath the calm surface lies a temporary dormancy of bullish and bearish momentum. The top priority now is not predicting short-term rises or falls but preparing sufficient funds and clear strategies for potential post-holiday volatility. The market is quietly accumulating strength for the closing of 2025 and the start of 2026.