#加密生态动态追踪 Is quantum threat really that scary? Actually, there's no need to panic excessively.

Recently, quantum computing has frequently been portrayed as Bitcoin's "ultimate nemesis." Claims that Shor's algorithm can reverse-engineer private keys from public keys, putting 40 million BTC stored in P2PK addresses at risk, and that Satoshi Nakamoto's million-coin holdings are a ticking time bomb, have been widely circulated. The US government even introduced the "National Quantum Network Security Migration Strategy Act," requiring federal agencies to switch to post-quantum encryption standards by 2035. It all sounds quite alarming.

But upon closer inspection, these concerns are actually exaggerated.

Currently, mainstream Bitcoin wallets have optimized address structures through technologies like Segregated Witness (SegWit), fundamentally eliminating the possibility of directly exposing public keys. This means that even if quantum computing advances significantly, it will be very difficult to reverse-engineer anything from wallet addresses. The risk is not as imminent as it seems.

Looking at industry experts' predictions—there's a huge divergence. Blockstream CEO Adam Back believes it will take at least twenty years, while the UK's National Cyber Security Centre suggests completing the migration by 2035 is sufficient. EY's research indicates that the probability of being cracked within the next 5 to 30 years is only 50%-70%. This provides the industry with ample buffer time to adapt.

More importantly, the entire crypto ecosystem is already advancing its defense systems across multiple dimensions. In Q4 2025, BTQ Technologies demonstrated a quantum-safe Bitcoin solution based on NIST standards using ML-DSA. Leading projects like Ethereum and Cardano are actively integrating quantum-resistant technologies, and proposals like QuBit and QRAMP are directly targeting quantum-resistant signatures.

For ordinary holders, following these key points can help mitigate short-term risks: choose reputable wallets, avoid address reuse, and use multi-signature or cold storage solutions. As industry technology continues to evolve, Bitcoin's defensive infrastructure will only become more robust. Instead of worrying unnecessarily, it's better to hold your position with confidence and wait for the next wave of price increases.