#美联储启动新一轮降息周期 The impact of the Federal Reserve decision on the crypto world may be particularly different this time.

Tonight's interest rate decision is almost a done deal——a 25 basis point cut is highly likely to be implemented. But what really determines the market trend isn't the cut itself. The key is how Powell comments. If the dot plot shows continued easing next year, the probability of Bitcoin surging to $95,000 or even higher is high; conversely, if a hawkish signal is sent, a short-term pullback shouldn't be surprising.

More worth paying attention to are regulatory changes. The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency recently granted banks permission to directly engage in crypto asset trading and custody services. This is not just a document; it truly opens the door for traditional finance to enter digital assets. Once these institutions start pouring in funds, how large could the scale be? Hard to say, but historical data shows that whenever friendly regulatory policies are introduced, they are always accompanied by substantial capital inflows.

There are also signals from the ETF side. Bitcoin ETFs have recently been bleeding some assets, but Ethereum ETFs are actually attracting money. A major player recently invested $50 million into ETH all at once. What does this indicate? That smart money might be reallocating—gradually shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum and other assets.

In terms of operation, short-term key support levels are crucial: $91,400 for Bitcoin, $3,250 for Ethereum. Falling below these levels means consider stopping losses. But medium-term, with easing regulations and big institutions stocking up, any pullback is likely an opportunity to add positions.

Tonight’s Powell speech could very well set the tone for the next two weeks. Be prepared.

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