2026 US Economic Forecast Released: 2% rise is sluggish, employment data continues to disappoint.

[Block Rhythm] Recently saw an interesting survey conducted by the National Association for Business Economics in the U.S. The results are quite intriguing. 42 professional forecasters provided their views on the U.S. economy in November for the year 2026, with an overall tone of "steady but weak."

Let’s talk about growth first. The median expectation for GDP growth in 2026 is set at 2%, slightly higher than the 1.8% from the last survey in October. If you compare it to the forecast back in June of this year, when everyone only dared to give 1.3%, it’s clearly more optimistic now. However, to be honest, this 2% is just a tepid pace and isn’t particularly strong.

Regarding inflation, the forecast for this year is around 2.9%, which is slightly lower than the 3% predicted in October. By 2026, it may drop to 2.6%—note that it is only a "possibility", and the reduction is indeed very limited. Many economists attribute this issue to tariffs, implying that policy-level trade barriers are continuously driving up prices.

The most troubling issue is still employment. The average monthly increase in non-farm jobs is expected to be only 58,000 this year, which is less than the previous forecast of 60,000. The situation in 2026 isn't much better, with expectations of 64,000, far below the 75,000 reported in the October survey. What about the unemployment rate? It might reach 4.5% by early next year, and it's highly likely to stay around that level for the whole year. This number doesn't seem explosive, but the continuous weakness in job growth is indeed quite frustrating.

The actions of the Federal Reserve can basically be guessed. There is a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, and a further 50 basis points cut throughout 2026 would be about the end of it. This pace is clearly moving towards a neutral interest rate, neither wanting to stimulate too aggressively nor daring to tighten too much. In other words, it's a step-by-step approach, very cautious.