#美国人工智能行动计划 Tonight, it seems I'll have to keep an eye on the market again. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations have suddenly changed, and the market sentiment is clearly off. Brothers playing contracts really need to be cautious.

Morgan Stanley just released a significant announcement - after reviewing the latest employment data, they directly withdrew their prediction for a rate cut in December. Once this news broke, the entire risk asset circle couldn't hold back, and the crypto market naturally didn't escape either.

To put it simply, this is the situation: originally everyone was focused on interest rate cuts, thinking that money would become cheaper and funds would flow into high-yield assets. Now, it seems that interest rates may remain high for a long time, and the rules of the game have completely changed.

First, there is the issue of money. What does a high interest rate mean? Treasury bonds and those stable products become very attractive, who would still be willing to risk putting their money into the crypto space? Once liquidity is withdrawn, the market immediately goes limp. Then there's the risk appetite—when borrowing costs are so high, who dares to leverage and go all in? Cryptocurrencies are inherently high-risk assets, and during such times, they are often the ones that get sold off the hardest.

In the short term, the market is likely to continue to consolidate. Investors are currently in a wait-and-see approach, and some of the gains from the previous rise driven by interest rate cut expectations may have to be given back. The key support level is expected to be tested repeatedly.

That said, the crypto market doesn't completely rely on the Fed's mood. Funds for Bitcoin spot ETFs are still flowing in steadily, the halving event is approaching, and the activity in the on-chain ecosystem is evident. These are all internal driving forces; no matter how poor the macro environment is, they can still provide some support. The key is whether these positive factors can withstand external pressures.