#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 June 5th U.S. stock market plunge analysis: The two sides of eating meat and taking a beating
June 5th (Eastern Time) U.S. stocks experienced a sharp decline, but fundamentally it was not a recession trade, but a typical AI asset valuation compression.
Currently, we have not seen: cloud providers cut AI capital expenditures (CapEx) or a noticeable slowdown in AI demand
Disruption in data center construction cycles
Therefore, this round of decline is more like the first major valuation correction in the AI bull market, rather than a reversal of industry trends.
I. Specific situation and basic qualitative analysis: Nasdaq fell 4.2% in a single day, the largest daily drop since the tariff turmoil in April 2025; S&P 500 declined 2.6%; Dow Jones dropped 1.4%, just after hitting a record high the previous day. Chip stocks led the decline, with Marvell plunging about 16%, Micron down about 13%, Intel and AMD each down about 11%, Broadcom falling over 7% after a large drop on Thursday.
Qualitative: This is not a macro stock market crash, but the first systemic squeeze of the AI asset bubble.
Because: Consumer staples rose instead / defensive sectors like Coca-Cola moved against the trend / mainly hitting semiconductor and AI-related stocks, this looks more like an amplified version of the AI stock correction in August 2024, rather than the start of a 2022 rate hike bear market.
What truly determines the next three months’ trend is not non-farm payrolls, but whether Microsoft, Google, and Meta will cut AI capital expenditures next. If CapEx does not decrease, then this sharp decline is likely just a process of de-bubbling and de-congestion within the AI bull market.
II. Causes of the plunge:
1. Broadcom triggered AI industry valuation re-pricing (catalyst) + Overcrowding in AI trading
Broadcom Q2 earnings report was released after market close on Wednesday, with revenue of $22 billion slightly below the expected $22.2 billion, but adjusted EPS exceeded expectations. The real trigger for selling was CEO Hock Tan’s refusal to raise the full-year 2026 AI semiconductor sales forecast, despite Q3 guidance of $29.4 billion exceeding expectations. The market interpreted this as a sign of slowing demand momentum.
Broadcom expects Q3 AI chip revenue of $16 billion, below analyst expectations of $17.2 billion. Although the figure is strong, it falls short of hyperscaler AI order expectations. Over the past six months, global funds have almost all been involved in the same trade:
High concentration of AI funds in: Nvidia / Broadcom / Micron / SK Hynix / TSMC; even the Korea KOSPI and Taiwan Weighted Index show clear signs of AI asset centralization. In this environment: just one negative catalyst could trigger:
CTA de-risking
Quantitative strategy de-risking
Hedge fund profit-taking
Leverage unwinding
Leading to rapid declines.
2. Strong non-farm data, long-term interest rates rise again (amplifier) The U.S. added 172k jobs in May, far exceeding analyst expectations, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. This strong report almost eliminated the possibility of the Fed cutting rates soon, and the financial markets immediately priced in a 42.7% chance of a rate hike at the December FOMC. For high-valued, long-duration AI/semiconductor sectors, rising rates are a double blow: increased discount rates depress valuations, while funds rotate into defensive/financial sectors.
3. U.S.-Iran stalemate (background noise, but not to be ignored)
III. Follow-up analysis
Global version
Google / AVGO / SK Hynix / BESSI / TSMC / Tokyo Electron
China version
Zhongji Xuchuang / Tongfu Microelectronics / Yake Technology / Huatian Shares / Haohua Technology / Tuojing Technology
In the short term, AVGO is most at risk because this round of plunge was triggered by it. The market will reassess whether ASIC demand is overextended, whether large-scale client CapEx has peaked, with the greatest short-term pressure.
Next is Micron, as HBM accounts for a smaller portion of revenue, with higher DDR.
Generally risky: Hynix, because HBM has become one of the most crowded trading assets in the market. But the logic is stronger than DDR.
Relatively safe: Google, since Google does not sell XPU, but is an AI infrastructure user. The market is now starting to look for the real profit-makers in AI, with Google Cloud + TPU + inference business logic becoming stronger.
Impact on Chinese supply chain (pure fundamentals)
Optical modules (Zhongji Xuchuang)
Short-term follow-through, long-term logic unchanged. Because compute investment has not ended, only valuation compression.
Packaging chain (Tongfu, Changdian, Shentech) has limited impact, as advanced packaging orders come from long-term construction cycles, unlike GPUs which are traded daily.
Tuojing Technology is least affected, as it is based on domestic substitution logic, not AI sentiment.
IV. Follow-up recommendations
Short-term operations:
To cope with the impact of SpaceX IPO (starting June 12), reduce positions and switch to S&P 500. The real risk of SpaceX IPO is not on June 5, but over the next two weeks: listing on June 12 + forced allocation by passive funds + subsequent IPO pipeline of OpenAI/Anthropic. This combination will continue to exert marginal liquidity pressure on the tech/AI sectors throughout the second half of the year. If risk appetite is low, switch to stocks like 03441HK / Coca-Cola / Johnson & Johnson / VISA for dividends.
Long-term observation:
1. Watch data ahead of next week’s FOMC
The current Fed stance remains dovish, but the federal funds futures market is pricing in rate hikes, with a probability exceeding 50% before December 2026. If the June FOMC shifts to hawkish, it will be a second shock to the valuation of tech/semiconductor sectors, requiring proactive risk management in client expectations.
2. Key focus: Microsoft CapEx, Google CapEx, Meta CapEx, Nvidia order data
Impact of SpaceX IPO fund diversion
If CapEx continues to grow: this adjustment will become a window for re-layout in the AI industry chain.
June 5th (Eastern Time) U.S. stocks experienced a sharp decline, but fundamentally it was not a recession trade, but a typical AI asset valuation compression.
Currently, we have not seen: cloud providers cut AI capital expenditures (CapEx) or a noticeable slowdown in AI demand
Disruption in data center construction cycles
Therefore, this round of decline is more like the first major valuation correction in the AI bull market, rather than a reversal of industry trends.
I. Specific situation and basic qualitative analysis: Nasdaq fell 4.2% in a single day, the largest daily drop since the tariff turmoil in April 2025; S&P 500 declined 2.6%; Dow Jones dropped 1.4%, just after hitting a record high the previous day. Chip stocks led the decline, with Marvell plunging about 16%, Micron down about 13%, Intel and AMD each down about 11%, Broadcom falling over 7% after a large drop on Thursday.
Qualitative: This is not a macro stock market crash, but the first systemic squeeze of the AI asset bubble.
Because: Consumer staples rose instead / defensive sectors like Coca-Cola moved against the trend / mainly hitting semiconductor and AI-related stocks, this looks more like an amplified version of the AI stock correction in August 2024, rather than the start of a 2022 rate hike bear market.
What truly determines the next three months’ trend is not non-farm payrolls, but whether Microsoft, Google, and Meta will cut AI capital expenditures next. If CapEx does not decrease, then this sharp decline is likely just a process of de-bubbling and de-congestion within the AI bull market.
II. Causes of the plunge:
1. Broadcom triggered AI industry valuation re-pricing (catalyst) + Overcrowding in AI trading
Broadcom Q2 earnings report was released after market close on Wednesday, with revenue of $22 billion slightly below the expected $22.2 billion, but adjusted EPS exceeded expectations. The real trigger for selling was CEO Hock Tan’s refusal to raise the full-year 2026 AI semiconductor sales forecast, despite Q3 guidance of $29.4 billion exceeding expectations. The market interpreted this as a sign of slowing demand momentum.
Broadcom expects Q3 AI chip revenue of $16 billion, below analyst expectations of $17.2 billion. Although the figure is strong, it falls short of hyperscaler AI order expectations. Over the past six months, global funds have almost all been involved in the same trade:
High concentration of AI funds in: Nvidia / Broadcom / Micron / SK Hynix / TSMC; even the Korea KOSPI and Taiwan Weighted Index show clear signs of AI asset centralization. In this environment: just one negative catalyst could trigger:
CTA de-risking
Quantitative strategy de-risking
Hedge fund profit-taking
Leverage unwinding
Leading to rapid declines.
2. Strong non-farm data, long-term interest rates rise again (amplifier) The U.S. added 172k jobs in May, far exceeding analyst expectations, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. This strong report almost eliminated the possibility of the Fed cutting rates soon, and the financial markets immediately priced in a 42.7% chance of a rate hike at the December FOMC. For high-valued, long-duration AI/semiconductor sectors, rising rates are a double blow: increased discount rates depress valuations, while funds rotate into defensive/financial sectors.
3. U.S.-Iran stalemate (background noise, but not to be ignored)
III. Follow-up analysis
Global version
Google / AVGO / SK Hynix / BESSI / TSMC / Tokyo Electron
China version
Zhongji Xuchuang / Tongfu Microelectronics / Yake Technology / Huatian Shares / Haohua Technology / Tuojing Technology
In the short term, AVGO is most at risk because this round of plunge was triggered by it. The market will reassess whether ASIC demand is overextended, whether large-scale client CapEx has peaked, with the greatest short-term pressure.
Next is Micron, as HBM accounts for a smaller portion of revenue, with higher DDR.
Generally risky: Hynix, because HBM has become one of the most crowded trading assets in the market. But the logic is stronger than DDR.
Relatively safe: Google, since Google does not sell XPU, but is an AI infrastructure user. The market is now starting to look for the real profit-makers in AI, with Google Cloud + TPU + inference business logic becoming stronger.
Impact on Chinese supply chain (pure fundamentals)
Optical modules (Zhongji Xuchuang)
Short-term follow-through, long-term logic unchanged. Because compute investment has not ended, only valuation compression.
Packaging chain (Tongfu, Changdian, Shentech) has limited impact, as advanced packaging orders come from long-term construction cycles, unlike GPUs which are traded daily.
Tuojing Technology is least affected, as it is based on domestic substitution logic, not AI sentiment.
IV. Follow-up recommendations
Short-term operations:
To cope with the impact of SpaceX IPO (starting June 12), reduce positions and switch to S&P 500. The real risk of SpaceX IPO is not on June 5, but over the next two weeks: listing on June 12 + forced allocation by passive funds + subsequent IPO pipeline of OpenAI/Anthropic. This combination will continue to exert marginal liquidity pressure on the tech/AI sectors throughout the second half of the year. If risk appetite is low, switch to stocks like 03441HK / Coca-Cola / Johnson & Johnson / VISA for dividends.
Long-term observation:
1. Watch data ahead of next week’s FOMC
The current Fed stance remains dovish, but the federal funds futures market is pricing in rate hikes, with a probability exceeding 50% before December 2026. If the June FOMC shifts to hawkish, it will be a second shock to the valuation of tech/semiconductor sectors, requiring proactive risk management in client expectations.
2. Key focus: Microsoft CapEx, Google CapEx, Meta CapEx, Nvidia order data
Impact of SpaceX IPO fund diversion
If CapEx continues to grow: this adjustment will become a window for re-layout in the AI industry chain.
