The U.S. government shutdown is affecting the entire financial market, and a storm is about to arrive.

There have been two instances of "U.S. government shutdown" in history; during the 16-day shutdown in 2013, Bitcoin surged by 14%, and during the 35-day shutdown from late 2018 to early 2019, Bitcoin fell by 6%.
So, is Bitcoin facing an upward opportunity or a risk of retracement this time? First of all, this week, Cook "called" for Bitcoin and Ethereum to experience a counter-trend surge, but today it has once again come under pressure, giving back most of its gains. Firstly, regarding the potential government shutdown in the United States, if Congress fails to reach a spending agreement by September 30, the government may shut down on October 1, leading to delays in the release of key economic data such as the non-farm payroll report, which would affect Bitcoin traders' predictions regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and exacerbate short-term market volatility.
Expectations of interest rate cuts are favorable for risk assets and may provide liquidity support for Bitcoin. However, concerns about bubbles and political risks could exacerbate short-term volatility, making significant "drop and rebound" fluctuations in Bitcoin prices more likely.
For example, on September 25, affected by factors such as the potential government shutdown in the United States, the price of Bitcoin fell by about 4%, leading a sell-off in the cryptocurrency market. If the shutdown continues this time, Bitcoin may continue to decline in the short term.
In the long term, if a government shutdown leads to a worsening economic situation and the Federal Reserve eventually confirms a rate cut, then theoretically, this would improve market liquidity, thereby providing support for risk assets including Bitcoin.
Currently, considering both the news and technical aspects, Bitcoin is overall maintaining a large-scale adjustment, so in the short term, we can operate with a strategy of selling high and buying low. As the National Day holiday approaches, it is expected that the market will continue in a volatile mode. Bitcoin can focus on the large range of 110,000 to 115,000, Ethereum on the range of 4,000 to 4,300, and in the smaller range, pay attention to the battle for the 113,000/4,200 levels. #BTC